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France's advancement probability is 73%, win in regular time probability 53%, draw 32%, Morocco's upset 15%.
Key factors:
1. France's advantages: Massive squad value lead (1.52 billion euros), Mbappé in hot form, multi-point attack system, favorable historical record.
2. Morocco's concerns: Midfield core Sébari injured, high-intensity defense sustainable for only 60 minutes, clear midfield gaps in transition.
3. Tactical battle: Morocco's parked bus may limit France's possession, but wing duels (e.g., Mbappé vs Ashraf) could expose defensive gaps.
Score predictions:
• First choice: France 1-0 (narrow win, regular time close victory)
• Second choice: France 2-1 (advance after tough fight)
Upset risk: If Morocco's counter-attacks are efficient or France's midfield and backline struggle to distribute, a draw or narrow loss could occur, but a direct win probability is extremely low.