Tech stocks' 'biggest volatility in history': VXN/VIX ratio hits 23-year high

Well-known financial analysis account The Kobeissi Letter issued a warning that tech stocks are experiencing one of the most volatile periods in history. The ratio of the Nasdaq 100 volatility index (VXN) to the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) has risen to 1.7, a 23-year high. It is not only the first time since 2018 that it has broken above 1.5, but it also surpasses the peak of about 1.6 during the 2008 financial crisis. The market is betting on sharp swings in tech stocks.

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Key Points

• VXN to VIX ratio rises to 1.7, a 23-year high, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis peak of about 1.6
• Current VXN stands at 28 points, VIX only 16 points, the latter fully 43% lower than the former
• VXN has been above 20 points for 5 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 2022 bear market

When the VIX is only 16 points and the broader market appears calm, the waters under tech stocks are already boiling. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the VXN, which measures expected volatility of the Nasdaq 100, is currently at 28 points, while the VIX, which measures the S&P 500, is only 16 points, the latter 43% lower than the former. Dividing the two gives a ratio of 1.7.

How extreme is this 1.7? Since 2018, this is the first time the VXN/VIX ratio has broken above 1.5; going further back, during the 2008 financial crisis, the peak of this indicator was only about 1.6. The gap in volatility expectations between tech stocks and the broader market in the options market is now larger than during the financial crisis year.

Volatility among tech stocks is historically elevated:

The gap between the Nasdaq 100 volatility index, $VXN, and the volatility index, $VIX, is up to 12 points, the highest in at least 23 years.

The difference has more than tripled since the start of May.

This comes as $VXN… pic.twitter.com/mjWZCNyhHE

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 28, 2026

Tech stocks have been tense for five months

Another number worth watching is persistence. VXN has been above 20 points for 5 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 2022 bear market. 20 points is generally seen as a threshold for nervous market sentiment. Staying above it for five months straight indicates that this wave of unease about tech stocks is not a one- or two-day episode, but a continuously accumulating structural anxiety.

Putting these numbers together, the signal is clear: VIX is stuck at low levels, meaning investors are still relatively calm about the broader market, but VXN is elevated, and the ratio has widened to its largest in 23 years, meaning funds are heavily buying hedge protection for tech stocks.

For the crypto market, this is not an irrelevant distant signal. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have been highly correlated in recent years. Once tech stocks enter a high-volatility risk-off mode, the force of capital fleeing risk assets often transmits all the way to the crypto market.

FAQ

What is the difference between VXN and VIX?

VIX measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, while VXN measures the expected volatility of the Nasdaq 100. VXN is usually slightly higher than VIX because tech stocks are more volatile; a widening ratio indicates the market expects tech stocks to be significantly more volatile than the broader market.

What does the VXN/VIX ratio spiking to 1.7 mean?

It means the options market's expectation of tech stock volatility is far higher than that of the broader market, with the gap hitting a 23-year high, even surpassing the 2008 financial crisis. It typically reflects investors heavily buying hedge protection against sharp swings in tech stocks.