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$XAU Gold returns above 4100! Who will win the long-short battle?
The gold price rebounded strongly above 4100 after Wednesday's sell-off.
Fundamentals:
The weaker US dollar and escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold back above 4100. However, the Fed minutes show that September rate hikes remain on the table. Capital Economics economists bluntly stated that "the door for a September rate hike is still open," limiting upside for gold. Rising oil prices are also fueling inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of high interest rates.
Technicals:
The spot price has broken through the BOLL middle band, but the RSI at 77.02 has entered overbought territory.
Resistance above: 4200-4204; a break above sees 4220.
Support below: 4080, with strong support at 4025.
Gongming's View:
Geopolitical tensions provide a short-term floor, but a hawkish Fed caps medium-term gains. Be cautious chasing highs in overbought conditions.
Trading Strategy:
Conservative approach: enter long on a pullback to around 4080-4090. Aggressive approach: enter long small size near 4100 at current price.
Gold is the child of chaos, but the Fed is its stepfather.
#GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束