$BTC Fed Minutes Brief Commentary

The latest Fed June minutes were released, with all 12 members unanimously voting to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but the hawkish signals inside were prominent, with divergence far greater than the surface consensus. The minutes clearly record that a few officials believed the meeting already had conditions for a rate hike, with the core concern that inflation stickiness remains high, and energy, tariffs, and AI infrastructure demand continue to push up prices, still far from the 2% target.
Officials are polarized on the interest rate path for the rest of the year, with nearly half betting on at least one more rate hike, and only a very few expecting a rate cut, with the window for rate cuts significantly delayed. This pause in rate hikes is not due to easing inflation pressures, but rather the Fed weighing the risks of lagged tightening, worried that aggressive rate hikes would impact employment and commercial real estate, choosing to wait and see more data while retaining the option for subsequent rate hikes.
Policy communication has also changed, with no clear forward guidance provided, and market pricing is completely tied to data such as CPI, wages, and crude oil. Looking ahead, US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than fall, the US dollar remains relatively strong and volatile, suppressing high-valuation growth assets and gold. Domestically, high US bond yields continue to bring northbound capital outflows and pressure on the renminbi, limiting domestic easing space, with stable growth relying more on fiscal efforts.
Simple summary: This is a compromise pause, by no means a shift to easing. Once inflation rebounds, the probability of restarting rate hikes rises significantly. The focus ahead should be on core inflation and non-farm payroll wage data.
(Reminder: Content is only macro perspective sharing, not investment advice)#GUSD年化升至3.8%