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The volatility ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500 rose to 1.7, a 23-year high, surpassing the peak during the 2008 financial crisis. Tech stocks are experiencing violent fluctuations, with Bitcoin just breaking through $63k, and short liquidation intensity piling up at $64k. The correlation between tech stocks and crypto assets has been strengthening over the past year, especially as AI and chip stocks have become the core of macro narratives. The N consistently exceeding the VIX indicates that risk aversion sentiment in the tech sector is far greater than that of the broader market, and Bitcoin's rebound happens to occur against this backdrop. On Wednesday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84 million, ending three consecutive days of net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs continued to attract funds. Funds are showing structural divergence between coins — ETH is more regarded as tech infrastructure, while BTC relies more on macro liquidity expectations. When tech stock volatility surges, the sustainability of BTC's rebound is constrained by risk appetite contraction. The $64k short liquidation wall is a double-edged sword: breaking through could trigger a short squeeze, but if tech stocks continue to face pressure, a liquidity trap could turn the rebound into a bull trap. Currently, Bitcoin spot trading volume has not expanded, and the rebound relies more on futures leverage, which differs from the upward structure in early 2024. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are heating up, and if the yen carry trade reverses, it will drain liquidity from global risk assets. The crypto market is no longer an island; the transmission path of tech stock volatility is more direct than most people imagine.
$eth #btc #defi #etf #On-chain data