BTC Market Analysis

1. Base Scenario (Probability ≈65%): The daily RSI is in a neutral zone with no clear breakout signals. The price will grind narrowly within the 61,000-64,000 range. The initial short-term test will challenge the strong support of the 200-hour moving average near 60,800. If this support is confirmed with net ETF inflows, the first rebound target will reach the weekly resistance at 63,500.

2. Bullish Scenario (Probability ≈20%): If spot ETFs record net inflows of tens of millions three days in a row, coupled with a marginal easing of geopolitical risks, it could trigger a short squeeze. The price would quickly break through the dense resistance zone above $65,000, with a weekly upside potential of up to 5%.

3. Bearish Scenario (Probability ≈15%): If risk aversion drives the US dollar index to break upward, the price will effectively breach the psychological level of 60,000. The next support zone for accumulation lies in the 58,200-$59,100 range.

Key Monitoring Anchors: Net daily BTC ETF flows, US-Iran geopolitical dynamics, WTI oil price correlation, and on-chain transfer ratio of long-term holders (LTH).

Most short-term quantitative timing models currently signal a weekly bullish bias. Given the expectation of rising volatility, using high leverage is not recommended.