Ethereum (ETH) Full Market Analysis (2026.07.09)

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Leveraged contracts carry the risk of liquidation and total loss. The following is an objective market review and does not constitute any trading or investment advice.

I. Basic Market Data (July 9 Midday)

1. Current Price: 1,735 USDT, 24-hour decline 1.9%, intraday range 1,722–1,757

2. Comparison with BTC: BTC current price 61,900, decline 1.2%; ETH has higher beta, decline consistently larger than Bitcoin

3. Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index 18, extreme fear, short-term sell-off pressure concentrated

4. Trading Volume: Continued contraction, average daily volume over the past 30 days down 35%, liquidity shrinking, small sell-offs can cause rapid declines

5. Contract Liquidations: 24-hour ETH liquidations $61.6 million, of which $51.5 million were long position liquidations, long capital continuously exiting

II. Macro News Headwinds (Fed + Geopolitics)

1. June FOMC Minutes Hawkish (Core Negative)

• Officials generally agree that inflation stickiness is strong, AI infrastructure and Middle East oil prices will continue to push up prices, refuse rapid rate cuts, and do not rule out another 25bp hike in September

• CME rate pricing: September rate hike probability rises to 52.7%, rate cut expectations pushed to December

• 10-year Treasury real yield rises to 2.3% (one-year high), holding cost of non-yielding crypto assets significantly increases, capital continues to flow out of risk assets

2. Geopolitical Catalyst Negative

Escalation of US-Iran conflict, crude oil surges, market fears energy inflation rebound, dollar index holds above 101, global capital flows back to US Treasuries for safety, crypto market sold off

3. Marginal Positive (Very weak, cannot reverse bearish trend)

On July 8, ETH spot ETF saw net inflow of $70.5 million in a single day, but capital highly concentrated in Fidelity's single product, the remaining 9 ETFs had almost no incremental inflow, institutions overall on the sidelines, incremental buying severely insufficient

III. Technical Analysis by Timeframe (Daily + 4H + Hourly)

1. Daily Level (Medium-term trend: Bearish oscillation)

• Moving average structure: Price under pressure below 50-day MA (1,790) and 200-day MA (1,975), 20/50-day MA bearish suppression, medium-term downtrend not reversed

• Key bull-bear divide: 1,714 (20-day MA support), daily close below opens new downside space

• Indicators: Daily RSI = 33, slightly oversold, no bottom divergence; MACD below zero line, bearish momentum not exhausted

2. 4H Short-term Structure (Descending channel)

Lower highs continuously, all short-term MAs pressing price down, 4H MACD green bars persist, bounces are all weak counter-trend moves, no reversal signal

3. Key Support/Resistance Levels

Support (near to far)

1. Short-term strong support: 1,710–1,714 (20-day MA + intraday low dense area, last defense for bulls)

2. Medium-term support: 1,680–1,690 (previous oscillation box bottom, breaking will trigger massive stop-loss orders)

3. Ultimate structural support: 1,620–1,650 (yearly high-volume area, long-term capital accumulation zone)

Resistance (bounce resistance)

1. First resistance: 1,770–1,790 (50-day MA, first strong resistance for bounces, hard to break in one go)

2. Second resistance: 1,820–1,860 (previous oscillation platform, only if volume breaks above can daily weakness be repaired)

3. Trend reversal confirmation: Daily close above 1,920 to reverse medium-term bearish pattern

IV. On-Chain Fundamentals (Long-term support, short-term ineffective)

Long-term bullish logic

1. Exchange ETH inventory continues to hit record lows, 33% of total supply staked and locked, circulating supply shrinking, downside has floor constraints

2. Institutional long-term accumulation not stopped: whale addresses holding 10,000+ ETH have added 100k ETH cumulatively in the past week, corporate holdings locked and unmoved

3. Q3 Ethereum Glamsterdam scaling upgrade expected to launch, Layer2 ecosystem long-term narrative unchanged

Short-term bearish

On-chain gas fees and DEX trading volume continue to decline, no incremental application capital entering the market; ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken, capital flows preferentially to Bitcoin for safety.

V. Three Scenario Projections

Scenario 1: Weakness continues (65% probability)

1,710 support breaks, ETH drops to 1,680, further testing 1,650; Trigger conditions: BTC breaks below 61,000, US Treasury yields continue to rise

Scenario 2: Oversold minor bounce (25% probability)

1,710–1,714 support holds, short-term shorts close, bounce target 1,770–1,790 range; bounce is corrective, without volume will fade

Scenario 3: Trend turns strong (10% probability)

Two conditions must be met simultaneously: ① Powell's congressional testimony next week turns dovish, rate cut expectations revive; ② ETH breaks above 1,860 with volume and daily close holds; then can target 1,950, 2,000 levels.

VI. Spot/Short-term Trading Approach (Strict Risk Control)

1. Spot Long-term (No leverage)

• Do not heavily buy the bottom near current 1,720 level, wait and see in medium-term bearish pattern

• Staged accumulation zone: 1,620–1,650, small positions build base, stop adding below 1,600

• Reduce on bounce rule: if bounce above 1,820 without volume breakout, reduce positions to lower cost basis

2. Short-term Contracts (Extremely high risk, for professional traders only)

• Shorts as main line: until standing above 1,770, on bounce to 1,770–1,790 resistance light short, stop loss above 1,810, target 1,720/1,680

• Longs only for gambling: if volume contracts and stabilizes in 1,680–1,650 range with 4H MACD bottom divergence, minimal position try long, stop loss below 1,620

• Iron rule: in medium-term bearish trend, prohibit heavy long positions, short-term fast in and out, never hold against trend

VII. Key Catalysts Next Week (Determining Direction)

1. July 14: Powell's semi-annual Congressional testimony (biggest turning point this week, hawkish continues decline, dovish brings bounce)

2. BTC key level: 61,000 support, 64,000 resistance

3. ETH spot ETF daily net inflow/outflow data

4. US CPI, initial jobless claims data (continuously revising Fed rate expectations)

VIII. Core Summary

1. Short-term 1–7 days: Fed high-rate expectation suppressing, bears dominate, 1,710 is the life-or-death line, breakdown leads to deep downside; bounce limited, mainly under pressure and falling back.

2. Medium-term 1–3 months: On-chain supply scarcity provides floor support, but macro liquidity tightening caps upside, likely wide oscillation bottom-building in 1,620–1,860 range.

3. Long-term 6 months+: Staking lockup + ongoing institutional allocation + technical upgrades provide value support; the turning point requires the start of the Fed's rate-cut cycle.