Technical Outlook: Solana Attempts Recovery, but Bears Still Control the Higher-Timeframe Trend

​Solana is attempting to stabilize after defending the macro support zone around $61.21. Price has reclaimed both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, attempting to build acceptance above the recent consolidation range. However, SOL continues to trade below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA, indicating that the broader market structure remains bearish despite the ongoing relief bounce. RSI has recovered into bullish territory above the neutral 50 level, suggesting momentum is improving in the short term.

​📈 EMA Structure (Short-Term Recovery Within a Bearish Trend)
​20 EMA: $76.72
​50 EMA: $76.73
​100 EMA: $81.49
​200 EMA: $95.92
​SOL is trading slightly above the 20 and 50 EMAs, showing improving short-term momentum.
​The 50 EMA ($76.73) has been reclaimed, but establishing a daily close well above it is key to confirming a stronger recovery.
​The 100 EMA ($81.49) and 200 EMA ($95.92) continue to act as significant overhead resistance.
​👉 Buyers have regained some short-term control, but the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish until SOL reclaims the 100 and 200 EMAs.

​📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure
​Solana remains well below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $111.18, confirming the macro bearish structure remains intact.
​Buyers continue defending the $61.21 support zone after recent liquidity sweeps.
​Price is attempting to reclaim nearby resistance around $79.06–$80.51, where a successful breakout could trigger a move toward the 100 EMA.
​Bullish Targets:
​$79.06
​$80.51
​$81.49 (100 EMA)
​$95.92 (200 EMA)
​Bearish Scenario:
​Losing the $76.72–$76.73 (20/50 EMA) cluster would weaken the current recovery.
​A breakdown below local supports could expose the $61.21 macro demand region.

​🧠 ICT / Smart Money View
​Solana has swept sell-side liquidity beneath recent June lows ($61.21) and is attempting to reclaim short-term buy-side liquidity.
​Price is trading around a local Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $80.51 while testing local resistance, where sellers may look to protect their positions.
​A confirmed Market Structure Shift (MSS) followed by a sustained daily close above the 100 EMA ($81.49) would significantly improve the probability of a larger bullish reversal.

​📉 RSI Momentum
​RSI (14): 54.94
​RSI has recovered sharply from previous lows and has crossed above the neutral 50 level to 54.94.
​Holding above 50–60 will strengthen the bullish case, while a rejection back below 50 would indicate sellers still dominate momentum.

​📊 Key Levels
​🔴 Resistance
​$79.06
​$80.51
​$81.49 (100 EMA)
​$95.92 (200 EMA)
​🟢 Support
​$76.97
​$76.73 (50 EMA)
​$76.72 (20 EMA)
​$61.21

​📌 Final Outlook
​Solana is showing early signs of recovery after defending its key demand zone and reclaiming the 20 and 50 EMAs. While short-term momentum is improving, the overall market structure remains bearish as long as SOL trades below its higher-timeframe moving averages.
​✅ Holding above $76.72 keeps the short-term recovery scenario intact.
​✅ A breakout and daily close above $80.51 could accelerate upside momentum toward $81.49 and $95.92.
​❌ Losing the 20/50 EMA cluster would invalidate the recovery setup and increase the probability of another move toward the $61.21 support region.

​Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish (Short Term). Solana is attempting to build a relief rally, but confirmation of a higher-timeframe trend reversal requires a decisive break and sustained hold above the 100 EMA ($81.49), the 200 EMA ($95.92), and the 0.236 Fibonacci level.

$SOL ‌