#特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 Why did a single sentence "ceasefire ends" cause global markets to crash so quickly?

To understand this, you first need to grasp what the Strait of Hormuz is.

This strait is one of the world's most critical oil transportation chokepoints — roughly 20% to 25% of global oil trade passes through it. Oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait destined for Asia and Europe must often traverse this narrow waterway. During the ceasefire, this route was largely open. Once the ceasefire ended, ships became afraid to cross.

Today, research institutions have reported that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically ground to a halt." With 25% of the world's oil supply route jammed — it would be strange if oil prices didn't surge. And once oil prices rise, the downstream chain reaction kicks in: transportation costs go up, electricity costs go up, food costs go up, and everything that depends on energy follows suit.

This is why oil is called the "locomotive" of prices — once it moves, the entire inflation train starts rolling.

Why does the word "inflation" terrify the stock market?

Because inflation and interest rate cuts move in opposite directions. With high inflation, the Fed cannot cut rates and may even need to raise them. High interest rates are like a mountain weighing on both stocks and bonds — corporate borrowing costs rise, discount rates rise, the present value of future earnings falls, and stock prices should drop.

What the market fears most today is this logical chain: conflict in the Middle East → oil prices rise → inflation rebounds → the Fed dares not cut rates → high rates persist longer → stock market under pressure. This chain was reactivated today by a single sentence from Trump.

Well-known Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni stated that the breakdown of the ceasefire could trigger a new wave of price increases, even forcing the Fed to raise rates. The Fed's just-released June meeting minutes also show that policy has completely shifted to neutral, with upside risks to inflation becoming the core contradiction.

In other words, today's market is not just reacting to "oil prices going up" — it's reacting to a deeper fear: the dream of rate cuts may be shattered again.

Here's how the market performed today. Brent crude surged over 8% in a single day, briefly hitting nearly $80. WTI crude also rose over 6%. Energy stocks bucked the trend and soared — ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, Chevron, ExxonMobil all in the green, making today a celebration for energy stocks. But everyone else is bleeding. The Dow Jones dropped 831 points, down 1.5%. The S&P 500 fell 1%. The Nasdaq was relatively resilient but still down 1%. Chip stocks continued to suffer — Micron Technology fell 4%, AMD dropped 6.5%, Intel lost nearly 10%. Asian markets were not spared either — the Nikkei fell 2.1%, and South Korea's KOSPI dropped 5.4%.

This is a textbook "geopolitical panic day" market picture: energy up, everything else down, money fleeing risk assets for safe havens.

This event reminds us once again that the sources of market risk in 2026 are not limited to the AI bubble or earnings season — geopolitical uncertainty is the most unpredictable sword hanging over everyone's head.

Trump said today that the ceasefire is over, but he also said, "I don't think there will be a full-scale resumption of conflict; everything will end soon." He often contradicts himself, and the market has to both listen to him and guess his true intentions — that itself is an extremely draining source of uncertainty.

Trump says the ceasefire is over, but also says the conflict will be resolved soon. Which statement do you believe? When will the fire in the Middle East truly be extinguished? With oil prices above $80, have you felt its impact on your portfolio or your daily life?