#预测世界杯法国VS摩洛哥

Bitcoin 2026.07.09
I. Spot Status (Spot BTC, current price range $61,600-$62,200)

1. Intraday trend: 24-hour drop of about 1.9%-2.4%. After rebounding from the week's low of $57,750 to $64,000, it has entered a pullback. Today it continues to weaken under pressure, with a broad decline across the crypto market. High-volatility altcoins have fallen even more;
2. Market sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at 26, in the fear zone. Sentiment is cautious and risk-averse, with concentrated long-leverage position reductions and liquidations;
3. Key price levels
- Short-term strong support: $61,300 (daily 20-day moving average, short-term trend dividing line); secondary support $60,800; extreme support at the $60k round number;
- Short-term strong resistance: $63,000, $64,200-$64,600 (previous heavy congestion zone, difficult to break through in one go in the short term); medium-term heavy resistance at $65,500;
4. Capital flows: After three consecutive days of net ETF inflows (totaling $510 million), there was a small net outflow of $84.9 million today. Institutions are taking profits and exiting in the short term, while long-term whales are still absorbing positions in batches at lower levels.

II. Today's Core Bullish/Bearish Driving Logic

Short-term dominant bearish factors (core factors suppressing BTC price)

1. The Fed's June meeting minutes leaned hawkish, officially released today: multiple officials expressed high risk of inflation rebound, probability of a September rate hike rising to 69%. The market has completely delayed rate cut expectations. U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.56%. The carrying cost of non-yielding crypto assets has increased, and capital is fleeing risky assets;
2. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: U.S.-Iran tensions are high, crude oil surges. The market worries that energy will push up inflation. The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries become the preferred safe havens, with crypto capital fleeing to safety;
3. Technical selling pressure: Multiple failed attempts to break above $64,500. Short-term bottom-fishing capital is taking profits and exiting. All 1-hour and 4-hour technical indicators have turned downward, and rebound momentum is exhausted;
4. Weakness in U.S. stock market correlation: Global risk appetite is declining, the tech sector is volatile. BTC is under pressure alongside U.S. stocks due to high correlation.

Medium- to long-term supportive factors (limited downside)

1. ETF capital inflection point appears: After ending eight consecutive weeks of cumulative $8 billion in redemptions, there has been a phased inflow this week. Institutions' willingness to buy the dip on the left side is recovering, with support on large declines;
2. On-chain holdings stable: Long-term holders are not selling their spot BTC. Exchange BTC inventories continue to decrease, and chips are consolidating. Network hashrate remains at historical highs. The scarcity fundamentals of Bitcoin halving remain intact;
3. Historical seasonal pattern: Over the past decade, July has a higher probability of monthly BTC gains. It is a relatively strong month in the cycle. The short-term pullback is a washout within the rebound, not a trend reversal;
4. Weak June nonfarm payroll data means the market cannot fully price in a large rate hike for the whole year. There is room for a correction in pessimistic high-interest rate expectations.

III. Cycle-by-Cycle Judgment

Short-term (1-3 trading days: weak oscillation, biased toward pullback)

Overall, the market is in a post-rebound consolidation and washout phase, unlikely to see a sustained unilateral rally.

1. Weak scenario: Continued pressure below $63,000, effective break of $61,300 support leads to deeper pullback testing $60,800, extreme retest of the $60k level;
2. Repair scenario: Hold $61,300 support, low-volume sideways consolidation at lower levels, rebound capped at $63,000. Only a breakout above $64,600 with volume can reverse the short-term weakness.

Medium-term (mid-to-late July, key watershed: U.S. CPI inflation data on July 14)

This rally is only a bear-market oversold recovery, not a new bull market reversal. The daily chart is still oscillating and building a bottom below medium- and long-term moving averages.

- CPI drops significantly: Cooling inflation, rate cut expectations rebound, BTC may challenge the $65,500 resistance level, opening medium-term rebound space;
- CPI remains high: The Fed maintains high interest rates. This rebound ends, and BTC returns to below $60,000 for bottoming consolidation.

IV. Objective Practical Risk Reminders

1. Futures: Intraday fluctuations of thousands of points. Current long leverage is crowded, and the risk of two-way liquidation is extremely high. Avoid high-leverage frequent short-term trading;
2. Spot short-term: Do not chase buys above $64,000. Only the $60,800-$61,300 range offers value for dip buying. Do not blindly bottom-fish if BTC breaks below $60,000;
3. Spot long-term: Around $60,000 is a relatively low level in the cycle, suitable only for very small position dollar-cost averaging. Heavy position betting is not recommended;
4. Sudden potential risks: New U.S. crypto regulatory policies, escalation of Middle East conflict, or a sharp drop in U.S. stocks could all trigger a rapid BTC plunge.