Bitcoin sits in deep value while ETF outflows keep pressure on BTC

Bitcoin remains in deep value territory after trading below two major on-chain cost-basis levels for about five months, according to Glassnode. The firm said BTC is still below the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200.

Summary

• Bitcoin trades below key cost-basis levels, keeping deep value conditions active but still technically unconfirmed.
• ETF outflows have slowed, yet weak volumes show institutional demand has not fully returned.
• Long-term holder losses remain elevated, leaving sell-side pressure as Bitcoin’s main recovery barrier.

These levels matter because they track the average price paid by active investors and recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below both, many market participants hold coins at a loss. Glassnode said this phase can support long-term accumulation, but it has not yet confirmed a market bottom.

Bitcoin recently bounced from about $58,300 to $64,400. The move showed short-term strength, but it did not bring BTC back above the main recovery levels. Glassnode said, “The evidence suggests this process is approaching its later stages,” but it also warned that the realized price near $53,000 cannot be ruled out.

The setup keeps the focus on whether Bitcoin price can reclaim the $72,200 and $76,600 areas. Until then, BTC remains exposed to selling pressure and weak risk appetite.

Long-term holders are still realizing losses

Glassnode data shows that long-term holder loss realization has increased sharply since February. The share of total realized value from long-term holder losses rose from 15% in early February to 43%.

This group includes investors who bought near cycle highs and held through months of drawdown. Some are now exiting as the bear market lasts longer than expected. Glassnode said these sellers have become a major force stopping Bitcoin from reclaiming higher levels.

Daily long-term holder realized losses recently reached about $280 million. That was the highest level since December 2022. The firm said this pressure has not yet cooled enough to confirm that sellers are exhausted.

The next few weeks may be key for this metric. A steady drop in realized losses would show that long-term holders are selling less. Without that change, Bitcoin’s recovery may remain limited.

ETF outflows keep institutional demand weak

Bitcoin ETF flows remain another weak point. Glassnode said the 30-day average of spot Bitcoin ETF netflows has improved from about $193 million in daily outflows to $88.9 million. Still, flows remain negative.

crypto.news reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $4.5 billion in net outflows in June. The same report said June became the worst month for the products since their January 2024 launch.

There has been some relief since then. crypto.news reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending a 10-day outflow streak. That followed nearly $2.7 billion in withdrawals during the prior 10 trading sessions.

However, Glassnode said ETF trading volume remains weak. Daily ETF trading volume sits between $650 million and $950 million, about 80% below the October 2025 peak. This shows that institutional demand has not fully stabilized.

Options data shows caution despite reduced shorts

Derivatives data gives a mixed picture. Glassnode said the options open-interest put/call ratio has dropped to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026. This means traders are holding far fewer puts than calls.

That shift suggests short demand has eased. It also shows that traders have reduced some defensive positions after Bitcoin’s recent bounce. Still, the options market continues to price demand for downside protection.

crypto.news reported that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF flow drought recently eased while Bitcoin flashed a fresh rally signal. The update added to signs that parts of the market are trying to stabilize after heavy selling.

Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the later stage of a bear-market bottoming process. But it said confirmation still needs three conditions: lower long-term holder selling, stable ETF flows, and a recovery above key cost-basis levels. Until those signals appear together, Bitcoin’s bottom remains unconfirmed.