Bitcoin falls back to the key support level of $60,000, where is the selling pressure coming from?

Author: Marcel Pechman

Compiled by: Shenchao TechFlow

Shenchao TechFlow Introduction: On July 8, Bitcoin fell 3.5% intraday. The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement pushed Brent crude up to $74, Japanese government bond yields reached a thirty-year high, and Strategy reduced its BTC holdings by another $216 million outside its core selloff plan—multiple bearish factors stacking up. Traders are already preparing for a break below $60,000.

On Wednesday, July 8, Bitcoin dropped 3.5%. New developments in the US-Iran conflict drove oil prices higher, while Japan’s bond market again came under pressure—combined, these two factors triggered a broad cross-market deleveraging/risk-off move. At the same time, worries that Strategy could continue selling Bitcoin intensified, and traders are now preparing for the possibility of a drop below $60,000.

Bitcoin’s failed attempt to hit $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. But when equities partially regained ground on Wednesday, Bitcoin did not rebound from the $62,000 level. This relative weakness suggests that there may be other factors independently weighing on the crypto market.

Brent crude jumped from $68 the previous week to $74, with catalysts including the formal breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum and rising risks of disruptions to energy supply. After President Trump announced strikes on Iranian targets by the United States in response to a ship attack, he said the agreement was “over” (over).

Rising energy costs directly feed into broader inflationary pressure, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts and compressing the room for economic stimulus measures to be introduced.

Traders currently price in a 69% probability of a rate hike in September, up from just 42% a month ago. This environment places heavy pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has not yet been widely recognized as an effective hedge.

Global economic uncertainty returns; Strategy’s selling pressure compounds the pain

Adding to caution in market sentiment, at the NATO summit Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain and called this key ally “a wasted cause” because Spain failed to meet new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions could slow global economic activity and amplify concerns about economic contraction.

Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield. Source: TradingView

In Japan, government bond yields surged to a thirty-year high, reflecting market worries about the loss of central bank independence—Japan is trying to shift the central bank’s policy goals toward “achieving a stronger economy.” Japan is the largest overseas holder of US Treasury bonds, further amplifying global contagion risk.

Strategy (MSTR US) announced a new round of Bitcoin sales totaling $216 million on Monday, surprising the market. The nature of this sale is particularly delicate: it occurred outside the company’s core $1.25 billion “Monetization Program.” According to the company’s 8-K filing, the funds raised under this program are only used to replenish cash reserves, and this sale is not included.

Investors are now concerned that Strategy will face ongoing selling pressure while managing its capital structure and debt obligations—annual dividends alone are as high as $1.76 billion. Strategy also holds more than $3.8 billion in convertible bonds, with the earliest redemption date before April 2027.

From a regulatory perspective, the filings show that the Reserve Bank of India strongly supports a policy direction leaning toward banning cryptocurrency-related activities, including prohibiting banks from any exposure to virtual assets to maintain financial stability. India’s tax authorities also further emphasized the risk of tax evasion.

Signals of tighter global regulation add another layer of pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment. The bears still control the situation, and risk appetite continues to shrink due to geopolitical turmoil, the possibility that the Fed may shift toward a tighter monetary policy stance, and Strategy’s ongoing cash flow needs.

In the short term, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile, and a retest of the $60,000 support level appears increasingly difficult to avoid in the near term.