There's a weather trader who bought contracts at 4 to 20 cents and made $21,660 in a month.

He made a total of 3,426 predictions, specifically targeting the highest temperature ranges in several global cities such as Seoul, Qingdao, São Paulo, and Buenos Aires.

Wallet address:

His core strategy is actually quite simple. The market often severely underestimates the probability of a certain temperature range occurring, but weather forecasts 1 to 3 days out are already quite accurate, with high certainty. He picks these moments to buy "Yes" contracts at low prices, between 4 and 20 cents. When the outcome materializes, the odds are maximized, and the returns are extremely impressive.

His three best trades:
· $15 turned into $986.80, a gain of 6,479%
· $28.42 turned into $632.08, a gain of 2,124%
· $3 turned into $599.40, a gain of 19,880%

In short, it's arbitrage using information asymmetry in Polymarket's weather market, executed steadily and aggressively.

An old trick, just played in a new arena.