Hawkish confirmed but not exceeding expectations—early morning minutes released, crypto under pressure but not collapsing

Fed June meeting minutes were hawkish but not exceeding expectations, BTC dropped from 630 to 622, down 2.7%, reflecting the market has already priced in expectations.

Core signals: rate hike has shifted from discussion to an option, 9 people expect at least one rate hike this year (zero in March), market pricing 75%. Inflation drivers are clearly the Middle East situation, tariffs, and AI investment boom, with AI listed as a risk source for the first time.
Internal divergence is clear, but the consensus is "wait for data", some officials believe June already had conditions for a rate hike, but ultimately kept rates unchanged.

The Walsh style has been reflected: removing forward guidance, streamlining statements, everything relying on data. The main reason for the market decline is not the rate hike itself, but that Walsh did not release a "wait patiently" signal, and the committee moved toward tightening.

But if the 610-620 range can hold, there is buying support below. Next, watch the July FOMC and June CPI; CPI will set direction. For the crypto market, rising M-bond yields increase holding costs, capital outflow, Bitcoin short-term plunge, leveraged positions under pressure, entire market weak.
Short-term difficult to have strong rebound, medium-term anchored to inflation, if CPI falls then expectations repair. At this stage, avoid blindly buying the dip, control positions, avoid high leverage. $BTC $ETH #GUSD年化升至3.8%