Bitcoin Double Bottom Support Confirmed, Macro Policy Becomes New Market Narrative — BTC/ETH July 9 Deep Strategy Analysis

On July 9, 2026, Bitcoin retreated to $61,896 after hitting an overnight high of $62,372, forming a double-bottom pattern on the daily chart with gradually rising lows. Meanwhile, the White House confirmed the formal construction phase of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Strategy's tactical selling has been digested by the market, and ETF funds are flowing back in — macro policy is replacing pure technical trading as the core driver of this cycle. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current long-short battle between BTC and ETH from three dimensions: technicals, on-chain data, and macro policy, along with actionable strategy references.

I. Technical Analysis: Double Bottom Confirms Support, Consolidation Uptrend Unchanged

1.1 Bitcoin: From Sharp Decline and Rally to Consolidation Repair

Looking back at the trend since mid-June, Bitcoin touched a temporary high of $65,710 on June 14 before experiencing a rapid and deep pullback. On June 25, the price dipped to a low of $58,076, a drop of over 11%. However, it was this sharp decline that laid a solid foundation for the subsequent rebound.

On the daily timeframe, the long lower wick on June 25 and the second test on July 3 formed a classic double-bottom structure. The two long lower-wick candles tested lows of $58,000 and $61,176 respectively, with lows gradually rising — clearly signaling that bearish momentum is waning and bulls are willing to step in at lower levels.

Currently, the 20-day moving average is around $62,382, roughly flat with the spot price, forming the core battlefield for short-term long-short contention. The 50-day MA sits above $65,672 as resistance, while the 100-day and 200-day MAs are at $69,399 and $75,516 respectively. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment but the slope is flattening, indicating weakening downside momentum.

Notably, since Bitcoin fell from its June high of $73,580, it has completed three waves of decline. According to Elliott Wave theory, the current phase is either a 4th wave rebound or a B-wave rebound. If the price can hold $62,000 and break above the previous high congestion zone at $64,300, a new uptrend may be confirmed.

1.2 Ethereum: Correlated Correction, Weaker Structure Than Bitcoin

Ethereum's trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin but structurally weaker. ETH also experienced a significant pullback in early June and currently hovers around $1,760, repeatedly testing the $1,800 resistance level without a breakout, forming a clear descending trend line suppression.

Technically, ETH's 50-day MA is near $1,920, far above the current price, indicating the medium-term trend has not reversed. Below, $1,720 and $1,700 are key support nodes. If Bitcoin can hold $61,300 and bounce, ETH may follow to test the $1,800 resistance; conversely, if BTC breaks below the $60,000 psychological level, ETH could revisit its June low of $1,650.

II. Macro Fundamentals: Four Drivers Reshape Market Logic

2.1 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: From "Whether to Hold" to "How to Manage"

On July 8, the White House confirmed it is working with the Treasury, Commerce Department, and other agencies to study the optimal operational framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This statement is a milestone — it means the U.S. government's stance on BTC has shifted from "whether to hold" to "how to manage long-term."

Currently, the U.S. government holds approximately 328k BTC, all from judicial seizures, worth about $25 billion at current prices. The government has previously promised not to sell this Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Congress is still pushing legislation that would allow the government to actively purchase Bitcoin in the future, not just rely on seizures.

If such legislation passes, Bitcoin would be formally upgraded from an investment asset to a national strategic reserve asset. Once this logic is established, the likelihood of other countries following suit would significantly increase. Blockstream CEO Adam Back even believes that if the U.S. establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve and continues buying, Bitcoin entering the "million-dollar era" is not impossible.

2.2 Strategy Selling: Sentiment Negative, Actual Impact Limited

In early July, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced the sale of 3,588 BTC, worth about $216 million. This was the company's first significant sale since 2020, causing market panic.

However, a calm analysis shows:

• The sale proportion is extremely low: 3,588 BTC is less than 0.5% of its total holdings of 840k BTC, with negligible impact on overall strategy;
• The motivation is clear: only to meet cash dividend needs for its digital credit securities (STRC), a corporate cash flow management move, not a bearish view on BTC;
• Management stance remains firm: Michael Saylor reiterated that the long-term Bitcoin strategy has not changed, and noted that as long as BTC's annual appreciation exceeds about 3.3%, capital gains can sustain the securities' dividends long-term.

The market quickly absorbed this negative news, with BTC briefly dipping then promptly recovering above $63,000. This again proves that under a macro-positive dominant landscape, tactical operations by a single institution cannot alter the major trend.

2.3 ETF Fund Inflows: Institutions Re-entering

In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows overall, considered a major driver of the correction. But entering July, fund flows turned positive — products like BlackRock's IBIT began receiving capital allocations again, with ETFs recording net inflows again.

Institutional fund re-entry is an important leading indicator for market bottoms. Looking back at the bull run that started in August 2024 from $61,000, sustained ETF net inflows provided solid buying support for prices. Currently, while the overall capital scale has not yet returned to early-year levels, the directional shift itself deserves close attention.

2.4 Federal Reserve Policy: Ample Liquidity Supports Risk Assets

On the monetary policy front, the Fed's interest rate control framework underwent a significant adjustment at the end of 2025 — removing the daily $500 billion cap on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP), allowing banks to borrow unlimited amounts from the Fed using Treasury bonds as collateral. This change has led to a substantial increase in market liquidity, providing a loose macro environment for risk assets.

Meanwhile, expectations for Fed rate cuts persist. Amid rising macro uncertainty, the attributes of gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven/speculative assets are benefiting simultaneously. Recalling the asset allocation strategy previously shared by users — "gold as a risk control anchor at 30%-40% of the portfolio, with remaining funds allocated to Bitcoin and quality mainstream coins" — remains highly relevant in the current environment.

III. Strategy Analysis: Balancing Range Trading and Trend Following

3.1 Bitcoin: Buy on Dips, Bet on a Second Rally

Combining technical and macro analysis, the core trading thesis for Bitcoin currently is: find buying opportunities within the consolidation range, betting on a second rally after stabilization.

Key Levels:

• Upside resistance: $64,300 is the previous high congestion zone and the first key resistance for bulls; $65,700 is the June 14 high, a strong resistance; around $68,000 is the 50-day MA, only a firm hold above here confirms medium-term trend reversal.
• Downside support: $62,000 is the 20-day MA, short-term long-short boundary; $61,300 is the double-bottom low, strong support; $60,000 is the psychological level and bull-bear line, a break below could trigger a deeper correction.

Trade Suggestion:

Take long positions around $61,800–$61,300, with first target at $63,000, second target at $64,300, and if effectively broken, look toward $65,700. Place stop-loss at $60,800, i.e., below the double-bottom low. This strategy offers a risk-reward ratio of about 1:2.5.

It must be emphasized that the current market is in a consolidation-up phase, not a rapid one-way rally. This means chasing highs is risky, and it is more suitable to follow after pullbacks to a stable level. Also, position sizing is crucial — it is recommended that single trade risk exposure does not exceed 2%-3% of total capital.

3.2 Ethereum: Rebound Stalls, Favor Selling on Rallies

Ethereum's technical structure is weaker than Bitcoin's. The $1,800 level has been tested multiple times without a breakout, forming a clear descending trend line suppression. Before BTC confirms a breakout, it is more appropriate to take a short-on-rally strategy for ETH.

Key Levels:

• Upside resistance: $1,800 is short-term strong resistance, tested multiple times; $1,850 is the descending trend line; $1,920 is the 50-day MA, medium-term bull-bear boundary.
• Downside support: $1,720 is the previous low support, short-term key; $1,700 is a psychological integer support; $1,650 is the June low, a defensive level in extreme scenarios.

Trade Suggestion:

Take short positions around $1,760–$1,780, with first target at $1,720, second target at $1,700. Place stop-loss at $1,800, i.e., above the short-term strong resistance. This strategy is suitable when BTC's rebound stalls and overall market sentiment is cautious.

3.3 Major Trend Judgment: Bearish Unchanged, But Downside Limited

Although short-term shorting opportunities exist, from a larger cycle perspective, the downside for this correction may already be limited. Reasons:

• Policy factors continue to be positive: the advancement of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, ETF fund re-inflows, and Fed easing expectations — three macro drivers all point to medium-term bullishness;
• On-chain data support: whales continue to build long positions at lows, global hashrate remains high, and network security hits new all-time highs;
• Historical patterns: Bitcoin always rebounds after sharp corrections, and its fundamentals are healthier than most traditional investments.

Therefore, the overall major trend remains bearish but downside is narrowing; short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities. For medium- to long-term investors, the current range is a good time to gradually accumulate.

IV. Risk Warning and Trading Discipline

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and no technical analysis can guarantee 100% accuracy. In actual trading, always adhere to the following principles:

1. Strict stop-loss: every trade must have a clear stop-loss level, with single trade loss not exceeding 2% of capital;
2. Staged entry: do not go all-in at once; use pyramid or equal staged entries to reduce average cost;
3. Focus on macro: technicals yield to macro; adjust strategies promptly when major policy news is released;
4. Control emotions: avoid decisions driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) and FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt);
5. Asset allocation: refer to the "gold 30%-40% + Bitcoin and mainstream coins 60%-70%" framework to diversify risk.

The market on July 9 is at a subtle and critical juncture. Technically, the double bottom confirms support with gradually rising lows; macro-wise, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve enters implementation, ETF funds flow back, and Fed policy easing expectations — multiple positives are converging.

For short-term traders, $61,800–$61,300 is a notable long zone for BTC, and $1,760–$1,780 is a notable short zone for ETH. For medium- to long-term investors, this may be the final window to position before the next uptrend.

The market is always changing; the only constant is respect for risk. May every trader find their own rhythm amid the volatility.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; investing carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market.

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