#美終止對伊朗石油制裁豁免

I. Current Situation Background

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran. Iran then closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. The two sides signed a 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding in mid-June, but after Iran attacked three merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, the US military immediately struck more than 80 Iranian targets. On July 8, Trump declared the ceasefire memorandum "terminated." As of July 9, the market is repricing the risk of a new round of conflict.

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II. Analysis of Impact Across Major Asset Classes

1. Crude Oil: The most direct, with a spike higher

Brent crude surged over 6% after Trump's remarks, breaking above $78/barrel; WTI crude rose over 4%, surpassing $75/barrel.

The core logic lies with the Strait of Hormuz—which handles roughly 20% of the world's oil shipments. A substantial blockade would create a classic supply shock. Under different scenarios:

· Low intensity (conflict does not block energy routes): The risk premium is quickly squeezed out; oil prices spike then mean-revert
· Medium-to-high intensity (strait blockaded, prolonged conflict): Brent crude could spike to $100 - $150/barrel

However, oil prices are still well below the March peak of $118, and the market has not yet entered full panic.

2. Gold: Safe-haven logic rewritten, under short-term pressure

Gold is behaving unusually in this conflict—spot gold fell instead of rising, dropping about 0.8% to around $4,068 on July 8.

The traditional "war → buy gold as a safe haven" logic has been rewritten. The new transmission path becomes: geopolitical conflict → oil rises → inflation picks up → Fed rate hike expectations → real rates rise → gold falls.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 4.57%, and the rise in real rates has significantly increased the holding cost of gold. Gold has retreated nearly 30% from its all-time high of $5,598.

If a prolonged conflict triggers stagflation, gold may switch from a "safe haven" to a "stagflation hedge," gaining more durable upward momentum.

3. Global Stock Markets: Broad declines with sharp sector divergence

US stocks: Dow futures once fell over 1%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, and Nasdaq futures fell 1.3%. The actual close saw the Dow fall 1.1% to 52,348 points. Historical data shows that when WTI crude rises over 6% in a single day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both average declines of nearly 0.9%.

European stocks: Larger declines, with European markets collectively plunging roughly 2% due to higher dependence on Middle East energy imports.

Asia-Pacific stocks: Japan and South Korea bore the brunt; most Asian markets fell on Wednesday.

Sector divergence:

· Beneficiaries: Energy and defense continue to outperform
· Losers: High-valuation tech/growth stocks suppressed by rate hike expectations; fuel-sensitive industries such as airlines, transport, and chemicals face margin pressure

A-shares: Relatively safer compared to overseas markets, likely to show strong resilience; Chinese ADRs even surged against the trend.

4. Bond Market: Yields rise, prices under pressure

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.57% - 4.77%, with bonds across all maturities being sold off. Bonds failed to play their traditional safe-haven role—the oil shock pushing up inflation expectations led them to fall along with stocks, offering investors no diversification protection when most needed.

Market pricing indicates traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once by the end of 2026.

5. Dollar and FX

The US dollar index edged higher on geopolitical uncertainty before retreating; the offshore yuan strengthened sharply, rising nearly 1%. The dollar's year-to-date gains remain substantial.

6. Cryptocurrencies: Hit by risk-off sentiment

Bitcoin fell below $62k, down more than 2%; Ethereum, Solana, and others declined in tandem.

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III. Transmission Chain

The impact of geopolitical conflict transmits to financial markets via the following chain:

Geopolitical risk intensifies → Oil prices surge → Inflation rebounds → Expectations of tightening central bank policy → Risk appetite declines → Full repricing of assets

The key to this chain is whether oil prices can stay elevated and feed through to core inflation. US May CPI year-over-year had already risen to 4.2%, the largest increase since April 2023, with energy contributing more than 60%.

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IV. Short-term vs Medium-to-long term

Short-term: The market is in "risk-off" mode; the classic script is "stocks down, oil up, safe havens in focus." However, gold and US Treasuries failed to perform their traditional safe-haven function this time, indicating that market focus has shifted from "whether there is risk" to "whether risk will push up interest rates."

Medium-to-long term depends on the trajectory of the conflict:

· Quick de-escalation: Impact is mainly on financial market volatility; economic impact is limited
· Prolonged: The global economy faces stagflation risk; major central banks are forced to maintain tightening; global stock markets enter a prolonged downturn

The IMF had already cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% in July.

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V. Overall Assessment

The impact of the renewed US-Iran conflict on financial markets is highly dependent on the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. Market reactions so far show a "cautious but not panicked" character, as investors have partially discounted risks over months of repeated conflicts. However, if the conflict escalates further to a prolonged blockade of the strait, persistently high oil prices will force central banks to maintain tightening, leading to deeper adjustments in global stock markets and a material rise in stagflation risk.