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CITIC Futures: Crude oil re-incorporates geopolitical premium, driving a sharp rebound in LPG prices on both domestic and foreign markets.

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Signs of renewed escalation in the Middle East geopolitical situation have emerged, with crude oil repricing geopolitical premiums, driving a sharp rebound in LPG prices on both domestic and international markets, and returning the one-way market trend to geopolitical dominance. On the supply-demand side, over the past roughly half a month, downstream offtake has been concentrated and realized, while logistics recovery since the US-Iran memorandum of understanding has fallen short of expectations, with both supply and demand jointly supporting a near-term period of tightness in the LPG market. Recently, this situation has been gradually changing. Middle Eastern sellers have begun selling more delivered cargo, alleviating buyers' concerns by assuming shipping risks themselves, which on one hand directly eases tightness in the delivered market, and on the other hand will also promote further recovery of strait logistics. If there is no further geopolitical volatility, then after the near-term period of tightness ends, the market may trade more on the medium- to long-term pattern—namely, the supply increase from the startup of US terminals will lead to a clear global LPG surplus, putting pressure on the FEI-Brent crack spread. (CITIC Futures)
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