### 7.9 Morning Analysis

The market is inherently full of variables. Sudden volatility and failed expectations are the norm; only by keeping a calm mindset can you clearly see the trend. Today’s market logic is clear throughout and is fully driven by the US-Iran geopolitical conflict. At the beginning of the escalation of geopolitical risk, the “big pie” quickly came under pressure and dropped fast. In the morning market analysis, it was made explicit that the bearish position is the core trading focus—securing the direction of the “voyage” early and following a “ride-with-the-trend” approach throughout, building the trade setup with the bearish idea.

From a technical-structure breakdown: On the daily chart, price briefly relied on the Bollinger Bands midline to obtain short-term buffer support, and an effective breakdown has not yet formed. However, this is only a brief pause in the next leg down; breaking through support is simply a matter of time. The market has already moved out of a standard bearish wave pattern. The downtrend is complete, and the follow-through momentum is sufficient. The downward structure after that “bearish wave” remains unchanged, and a new round of deep retracement has already been established.

On the short-term shape, price has formed a double-top resistance pressure structure. Combined with intraday step-by-step continued declines, the bearish energy is abundant and the downward inertia is strong. At present, bearish news in the market continues to ferment; the bearish side keeps accumulating, and the risk of a second probe downward has increased significantly. Once trading volume cooperates and breaks through the existing support, a rapid “waterfall” style decline may come immediately.

Short the “big pie” on the 62800-63300 area; target the 61400-60900 area.
Short the “small pie” on the 1770-1800 area; target the 1700-1670 area.
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