Brother Xing's Crypto Talk 0709 Today's Thoughts

Entry point: 62700 - 63000
Stop loss: 63500
Take profit targets:
First target: 61800
Second target: 60500
War narrative fully takes over, BTC becomes an "ATM"
The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate, oil prices surge past $75! In the face of a real "war narrative", global capital is frantically rushing into gold and US Treasuries as safe havens. BTC's current attribute is not "digital gold", but a high-liquidity risk asset! Institutions are indiscriminately selling off BTC to cover margin calls on US stocks and chip stocks. As long as risk aversion persists, BTC won't be able to rise for a single day.
2. Macro liquidity expectations shattered by "gunfire"
Originally, the weak non-farm payroll data had the market still fantasizing about a Fed rate cut, but as soon as the geopolitical conflict erupted, surging oil prices directly ignited "secondary inflation" fears! With inflation uncontrollable, rate cut expectations are completely nullified, and the US dollar index has instead strengthened due to safe-haven demand. The macro picture has turned from a "breathing window" into a "storm", and the bullish logic has been completely undermined.
3. ETF capital outflows, panic selling still ahead
After US stocks opened last night, spot ETF capital outflows accelerated, and big Wall Street money is resolutely reducing positions. The first wave of selling after a black swan event is often just "emotional venting"; the real "liquidity stampede" often occurs during the transition between Asian and European sessions the next day. Those who are buying the dip on this rebound are all catching a falling knife for the institutions!
In the face of a black swan, shorting with the trend is a money printer, while bottom-fishing against the trend is a meat grinder
If news suddenly breaks that "both sides are willing to negotiate", BTC may violently rebound. Once it breaks above 63500, run away, run away. $BTC #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免