The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has completely broken down, and shorts are once again feasting! BTC/ETH thoughts for July 9

Hours after Trump announced that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement had ended, the US military launched airstrikes for the second consecutive night, expanding the target scope to missile and drone facilities. Iran threatened to carry out a larger-scale retaliation and warned that if they were attacked, they would close the Strait of Hormuz. It also claimed it would launch large-scale strikes against US military bases in the Middle East. This morning, Trump once again kept running his mouth, saying: “Iran just called—they are very eager to reach an agreement. It’s just that I don’t know whether they still deserve to reach an agreement.” But after the strikes, the coin price did not drop sharply. It’s clearly that spot ETF inflows near this level have provided support. However, yesterday’s short positions were quite rewarding, and I’m still holding some shorts!

Two consecutive bearish candles on the daily chart: BTC has already broken down below MA10 and MA20. ETH is a bit stronger—after it tapped the 10-day moving average, it bounced back. However, in the attached chart, the KDJ indicator’s three lines are turning downward from the high level. With all three lines sticking together, a death cross is about to form. This leg of the decline clearly hasn’t bottomed out yet, so continue shorting on intraday rebounds!

**July 9 short strategy:**

BTC: Continue to short on the rebound at 63,000-63,500; add shorts at 64,000-64,500. Defense is around 65,500. Targets: 62,500-62,000-61,500. If it breaks through, look at 61,000-60,500-6万. Continue to adjust the trailing stop and lock in profits, depending on conditions!

ETH: Continue to short on the rebound at 1,770-1,800; add shorts at 1,830. Defense is above 1,860. Targets: 1,750-1,730-1,700. If it breaks through, look at 1,650-1,630-1,600. Continue to adjust the trailing stop and lock in profits, depending on conditions!

**July 9 long strategy:**

BTC: Enter long on a pullback to 59,500-6万, adding one more. Defense is around 58,500. Targets: 61,000-61,500-62,000. If it breaks through, look at 62,500-63,000.

ETH: Enter long on a pullback to 1600-1630, adding one more. Defense is around 1570. Targets: 1650-1700-1720. If it breaks through, look at 1750-1780.

Whether Iran will “save face” or not is hard to say, but it’s true that they really can’t keep dragging this on any longer. Trump’s behavior is undoubtedly shameless, but it is also undeniably the most practical and useful. In this kind of situation, going long is indeed a bit risky, but this level is actually quite solid, and spot ETF funds have been involved quite a lot this week. So it can only be said: you can try! #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免