The line in the Fed meeting minutes that "some participants saw grounds for an immediate rate hike" is the most overlooked signal in this Bitcoin rebound.

The June minutes show that while all members supported keeping rates unchanged, consensus on upside inflation risks strengthened, with the probability of a July rate hike rising to 34.7%. Bitcoin rebounded from $57,700 to $62,000 before pulling back again — driven not just by oil prices and Japan contagion risks, but by a tightening macro rate outlook that is squeezing risk asset valuation anchors.

CryptoQuant believes the rebound is part of a bear market rather than a trend reversal, and $313 million in 24-hour long liquidations highlight the fragility of bullish positions. The record $8 billion ETF outflow has yet to reverse, and weak U.S. demand is a structural flaw.

When rate hikes are no longer a "tail risk" but an "option," the liquidity premium in crypto markets faces a more stringent test. A rebound can be violent, but without macro easing to back it, it's just a high-leverage short squeeze game.
$btc #defi #etf #区块链 #crypto market