Outlook for silicon wafers in H2: short-term pressure and bottoming in Q3, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in Q4. The silicon wafer market will continue to run weak in the short term from July to September. On the supply side, total industry wafer output in July is expected to increase by 2-3 GW MoM. Integrated players maintain high operating rates, making large-scale capacity cuts difficult in the short term, and the destocking cycle for existing high inventories is lengthened. On the cost side, the polysilicon market remains under pressure at the bottom, with spot prices still having room for adjustment, making it hard to provide strong cost support. On the demand side, no significant increase is expected in the short term. High inventory issues persist in the battery cell segment, recovery in traditional overseas markets is slow, new markets offer limited incremental demand, and battery manufacturers' bargain-hard procurement is unlikely to improve. In the short term, low-priced supply of various wafer sizes will continue to flow, with room for slight price declines. The market's focus remains on the implementation of capacity cuts and downstream purchasing capacity. In Q4, the industry's supply-demand structure is expected to improve marginally, providing a basis for wafer price recovery. On the supply side, sustained losses will force the accelerated elimination of small and inefficient capacity. Leading players are expected to step up coordinated production control and maintenance shutdowns, leading to gradual supply contraction. On the demand side, concentrated grid connections of domestic large-scale wind and solar base projects, combined with year-end installation rushes overseas, will drive seasonal spikes in end-user installation demand. Battery makers' replenishment needs will improve, boosting wafer procurement volumes. (Mysteel)

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Silicon wafers face short-term pressure and bottom out in Q3, with expectations of stabilization and recovery in Q4.

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