7.9 BTC: Rebound fails to change weakness, mainly short intraday

$BTC
Entry: short near 627-631, stop loss band 636, target 610-602

Repeated Middle East tensions push up oil prices, market inflation expectations rebound again, and the Fed's probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 55%, further delaying the rate cut timeline. Under a high interest rate environment, the US dollar index remains strong, and overall risk asset valuations are under pressure. Bitcoin, as a high-volatility asset, weakens in sync with US stock risk appetite. The macro environment is bearish throughout.

After a period of narrow-range consolidation, the price has continuously declined, forming a "three black crows" pattern on the daily level, with bearish power gradually being released. Short-term moving averages remain bearishly aligned, and the price is consistently suppressed below the downward trendline. The 62700-63000 multiple technical confluence resistance level has been attacked several times without success. The downtrend structure has not been reversed; the current movement is merely a weak repair after the decline, not a trend reversal.
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