Tuesday

Macro flags soft US external demand.
• US: ADP +21K; GDPNow +1.4%
• UK HPI +0.2% vs +0.1%; Mortgage 6.6%
• CA Ivey 56.2 vs 59.1
• DE IP +0.9% vs +0.1%
• JP Spending +3.7% vs +1.4%
• Trade: CA +$4.24B vs +$2.8B; FR -€6.9B vs -€5.9B; US -$77.6B vs -$78.3B
Next:
• US MBA/Credit/GDP, FOMC Minutes Jul 8
• JP/FR C/A, AU Building, RBNZ Rate Jul 8
🇺🇸 US trade was better than feared.
Deficit came in at -$77.6B versus -$78.3B expected.
But the underlying mix was still weak:
→ exports fell to $317.7B from $328.2B
→ imports rose to $395.3B from $382.8B
Deficit beat consensus because expectations were worse,
but the month-on-month direction was still negative: exports dropped while imports accelerated.
GDPNow at +1.4% fits that softer picture.
Growth is still positive.
But it is not showing a convincing reacceleration.
Weekly ADP also slowed to +21K from +24.3K, adding to the labour-cooling narrative after last week’s payroll miss.
🇨🇦 Canada had the opposite trade setup.
Balance widened to a +$4.24B surplus vs +$2.80B expected.
Exports rose to ~$77.1B while imports fell to ~$72.86B.
That is a clean external-sector beat.
But business momentum cooled:
→ Ivey PMI 56.2 vs 59.1
→ NSA Ivey 59.7 from 61.3
Canada is still expanding.
It is just doing so with less domestic business momentum underneath.
🇩🇪 Germany gave Europe the strongest upside surprise.
Industrial production rose +0.9% MoM versus just +0.1% expected.
Annual production also turned positive at +0.11% after -0.76%.
That is a meaningful factory rebound after a weak spring.
It gives the Eurozone recovery story a real industrial leg rather than relying only on services.
🇬🇧 UK housing improved modestly.
Lloyds HPI rose +0.2% MoM versus +0.1% expected and accelerated to +0.6% YoY.
Mortgage rates stayed at 6.6%.
So housing is stabilizing despite financing conditions not getting easier.
🇯🇵 Japan had a strong sequential consumer read.
Household spending jumped +3.7% MoM versus +1.4% expected.
Annual spending was still down -0.4%, but that was far better than the -2.3% decline expected.
Japanese households are recovering from a weak base.
🇫🇷 France stayed weaker externally.
Trade gap widened to -€6.9B versus -€5.9B expected.
Exports fell to €53.6B, while imports rose to €60.5B.
That reinforces the split inside Europe:
→ Germany’s factory picture improved
→ France’s external side worsened
→ Eurozone services are recovering from low levels
→ producer-cost risk remains elevated
Meanwhile…
Omani-side Hormuz route is still the only practical workaround to Iran’s forced-routing demand.
But the tanker strike showed that the workaround itself can be targeted.
And it indeed was targeted the following day.