Monday

Macro shows mixed PMIs.
• PMI (Svcs/Comp): US 51.2/51.9; EU 49.4/50; UK 48.8/49.3; JP 52.2/52.8; AU 50.5/50.4; IT 50.2/50.8; FR 46.8/47.2; DE 48.6/49.5
• EU PPI 5.9% vs 5.7%; Conf -3.1 vs -14.5
• IP: FR -0.1% vs -0.3%, ES +3.4% YoY
• Retail: IT +2.2%, EU +1.6%
Next:
• US ADP/GDP, UK GBP/HPI, DE IP Jul 7
• US/CA/FR Trade, JP Spending Jul 7
The beginning of the week gave a Europe-led services recovery, while US demand indicators lost some speed.
🇺🇸 US services softened.
S&P Global services slipped to 51.2 versus 51.3 expected.
Composite activity came in at 51.9 versus 52.2.
ISM services also missed at 54.0 versus 54.2.
The more important deterioration was underneath:
→ New orders fell to 55.1 from 57.3
→ That is a real demand slowdown
→ But services employment jumped to 51.2 from 47.9
Hiring inside services improved.
Demand momentum did not.
That keeps the inflation story uncomfortable:
→ less pricing pressure than before
→ still above consensus
→ and now vulnerable again to freight and energy disruption
🇪🇺 Europe had the stronger activity surprise.
Eurozone services rose to 49.4 versus 48.9 expected.
Composite activity reached 50.0 versus 49.5.
It brings the broader Eurozone back to the expansion line.
🇩🇪 Germany was the main upside revision:
→ Services 48.6 vs 46.8
→ Composite 49.5 vs 48.0
Still below 50.
But materially less weak.
🇫🇷 France remains the opposite.
Services came in at 46.8 versus 47.4 expected.
Composite was 47.2 versus 47.6.
So France remains in contraction.
🇪🇸 Spain was the clear regional winner.
Services surged to 54.2 versus 51.0.
🇮🇹 Italy stayed basically flat around the expansion line:
→ Services 50.2 vs 50.3
→ Composite 50.8 from 50.4
Consumer data was firmer too.
🇪🇺 Eurozone retail sales rose +1.6% YoY versus +1.5% expected.
Sentix investor confidence jumped to -3.1 from -13.4.
However, producer inflation is the problem.
EU PPI accelerated to +5.9% YoY versus +5.7% expected, from +5%…
So Europe has better services, better retail and better sentiment.
But cost pressure is starting to move the wrong way again.
🇬🇧 UK remains soft.
Services barely beat at 48.8 versus 48.7.
But composite activity missed at 49.3 versus 49.4.
Construction was worse at 38.4 versus 40.1.
That leaves UK below the expansion line with the building side still under major pressure.
Asia was more resilient.
🇯🇵 Japan beat across services and composite:
→ Services 52.2 vs 51.8
→ Composite 52.8 vs 52.5
🇨🇳 China services also beat at 54.1 versus 53.0.
Though it slowed from 54.4 prior.
🇭🇰 Hong Kong manufacturing improved to 52.0 from 50.4.
🇦🇺 Australia also moved back into expansion:
→ Services 50.5 vs 49.9
→ Composite 50.4 vs 49.8
So Asia is still holding up better than the US and Europe’s underlying demand picture.
Meanwhile, industrial data was mixed but constructive.
And…
Geopolitics getting dangerous again.
Commercial vessels are still moving through Hormuz via the Omani side.
But the latest tanker strike shows that it is a fragile bypass route inside an active enforcement conflict.
That matters directly for the PPI story.
Any renewed shipping disruption could quickly turn today’s higher producer-price signal into a larger inflation problem.