Wu Says, the Fed's June FOMC meeting minutes showed that all participants unanimously supported maintaining the federal funds rate target range unchanged, and believed inflation remains above the 2% target, mainly due to tariffs, energy and supply chain shocks from the Middle East situation, and demand driven by AI-related investments. Most participants expected that if these factors fade, inflation will gradually return to 2%, and maintaining or lowering rates would then be appropriate; but if AI demand, tariffs, or geopolitical factors continue to push inflation higher while the labor market remains stable, further tightening of monetary policy may be needed. The minutes also showed that a few participants saw a case for a rate hike at the June meeting, but still supported holding rates steady; regarding the year-end rate level, many participants expect it to remain at the current range or slightly below, while many others believe the year-end rate should be higher than the current level, and the future policy path will depend on upcoming economic data.

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