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投机是伟大的事业。
Speculation is a great enterprise.
与大多数人想象的不同,投机绝不是碰运气,即做概率的对手;投机是做概率的朋友,站在概率的同一侧。
Unlike what most people imagine, speculation is by no means gambling, i.e., being an opponent of probability; speculation is being a friend of probability, standing on the same side of probability.
相信贝叶斯,因此不断摄入新知识,不断基于新的信息调整决策结构;相信伯努利,因此将数学期望大于1的事情反复去做,成千上万次。
Believe in Bayes, therefore continuously absorb new knowledge, continuously adjust decision structure based on new information; believe in Bernoulli, therefore repeatedly do things with mathematical expectation greater than 1, thousands upon thousands of times.
投机不是神之一手,投机是稳扎稳打,是对概率论与数理统计的尊重。
Speculation is not a divine move; speculation is steady and sure, it is respect for probability theory and mathematical statistics.
当我们抛开了人性本身的贪婪与脆弱,数学与哲学将无往不利,即基于基本面的量化策略。
When we cast aside the greed and fragility of human nature itself, mathematics and philosophy will be invincible, i.e., a quantitative strategy based on fundamentals.