A small knowledge point that many people overlook

If we zoom out to a longer timeframe,

The entire Bitcoin cycle shows a pattern of "sharp peaks, flat bottoms."

Looking at the data, across four cycles,

The median duration at the top is 24 days,

While the median duration at the bottom is 375 days (the number of days when the price is ≤ 2× the bear market low).
- 2011: 137 days
- 2013: 418 days
- 2017: 332 days
- 2021: 532 days

It is clear that the bottom zone lasts far longer than the top zone in every cycle.

The reasons can be summarized as follows:

1. In the late bear market, the tide goes out. After deep losses and dashed hopes of a rebound, sentiment shifts from "panic" to "numbness and forgetfulness."

2. The market lacks fresh buying, but steadfast holders are unwilling to sell at a loss. Liquidity is extremely scarce. Without capital inflows, prices oscillate in a narrow range through long, dead sideways consolidation.

From another perspective, the strategy best suited for the top zone is to sell quickly in batches.

In the flat bear market bottom, the optimal strategy is to desensitize yourself to daily price fluctuations, use long-term capital flow management, and quietly accumulate your chips during the "garbage time."

Selling at the top is an art of sniping; bottom-fishing is a war of attrition.