Currently, after the end of bearish news, oversold recovery oscillations with short-term indicators golden cross bounce, but 1H and 4H heavy resistance. The main trading strategy is to go long on support at low positions and short small positions on resistance for arbitrage, holding the 61280/1728 lifeline as the bull-bear watershed.

Holding a BTC long trapped at 62933, plan to add at 613, ETH add at 1726 for an average price of 1743.

Oscillation recovery bounce (main trend 75% probability) BTC bounce target 625 (1H MA20 strong resistance), ETH bounce target 1737 (MA20 resistance). After reaching resistance, pressure leads to a second retest of the 615/1712 support zone, wide-range box oscillation, no direct unilateral surge or crash. Logic: Short-term oversold recovery, but above 1H cycle still in downtrend, with MA20 strong resistance above, limited bounce space.
Weak bounce with second bottom probe (secondary trend 20%) Bounce touches 625/1737 resistance, then directly stalls and falls, retesting the lifeline 61280/1728. After lifeline forms a long lower shadow, bounces again, maintaining bottom box.
Effective breakdown of lifeline reopens bear trend (5% probability) Hard trigger condition: two consecutive 1H candles close below BTC 61280 and ETH 1728, and bounce fails to recover, 4H bottom raising structure broken, downside target BTC 600, ETH 1650.

--------------Golden Section---------------

Support long (main strategy)

BTC: 614-616, meet 5-minute four criteria (higher lows, MACD golden cross, RSI > 40, firm on support) Stop loss: 612 (lifeline) First take profit: 625 (MA20 resistance) Second take profit: 629

ETH: 1712-1718, meet 5-minute stabilization four criteria Stop loss: 1702 First take profit: 1737 (MA20 resistance) Second take profit: 1760

Resistance short:

BTC: 624-626, bounce with long upper shadow Stop loss: 631 Take profit: 616

ETH: 1738-1746 Stop loss: 1763 Take profit: 1715

Breakdown short (monitor standby):

BTC: 1H candle close below 61280, bounce to 614 short, stop loss 620, target 600

ETH: 1H candles consistently close below 1728, bounce to 1740-1745 short, stop loss 1763, target 1650

Current major direction: 4H MA20 still tilting upward, logic of previous low raising unchanged, bottom 61280 1712 not effectively broken, Bollinger Bands overall contraction, daily bottom-building structure intact. This round is only a news-driven pullback, medium to long term bottom support still there. Not excessively bearish.

BTC-0.66%

ETH-0.27%

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-09 11:27

19:25. Bitcoin short order 62666, Ethereum 1745, reduce position. Next position target 621-622, plan to reverse to long when it reaches there. Currently holding Bitcoin 630, Ethereum 1758 short orders.

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-09 07:11

15:06 BTC 63066.66 ETH 1758.88 entered; pullback to 625–626, reduce positions at 1743–1745; at 621–622, 1736 exit all, compared with the previous round of box-range consolidation. Now Bitcoin has broken out on increased volume, opening up short-term upside space. Ethereum is passively following the move; it has now reached a short-term watershed for the move. On pullbacks, continue to go long.

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-09 06:43

14:39 Bitcoin pending order at 62166, Ethereum 1730 missed—didn’t get filled. Pull back to 62200. Ethereum 36 started to rebound. Now the rebound’s highest point is 628. Currently, looking at 629-631. Ethereum 1756-1760 can be short.

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-09 05:12

13:05 The movement nearly replicated last night's prediction. It rebounded to 626, was resisted, and pulled back to 616. Currently, it holds at 616 and rebounds to 624. Now it seems to be pulling back again to 620–621, then challenging 626 again. A breakout above would target the previous high of 629–630. I currently hold no positions and plan to re-enter longs around 619–621 and 1728–1732 on pullbacks. Still not bearish; negative news has been fully digested. The short-term bullish structure remains intact, with higher lows forming. Only the RSI is overbought and needs a pullback, so no chasing highs — mainly buying on dips.

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-09 01:58

9:54, basically in line with expectations. It bounced to 626, so I opened a short position. I’m currently holding a long at 629 and a short at 626—half long, half short. Also holding an ETH short at 1743. I just closed everything at 61888 via one-click. Looks like it’s just a small loss on fees. I don’t want to keep watching anymore. My mindset is a bit off balance, so I’ll take a breather to reset.

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LittleBumpkinIsASillyPig.

· 07-08 17:47

Xiao Benben is a silly pig · Just at 1:42, ETH 1743.88 exited at cost to close the position, then reversed—opening a short. Currently holding BTC long at 629 and ETH short at 1743. In a dual-coin hedged state: the BTC long position is double the ETH short position. A pending order has been placed to short BTC at 626, taking up half of the long position; no other actions. The rest will be checked after I wake up tomorrow.

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