#世界杯冠军预测

2026 World Cup Quarterfinalists: Who is Most Likely to Win?

As of July 8 Beijing time, all eight quarterfinalists have been determined — Spain, France, Argentina, England, Belgium, Morocco, Norway, and Switzerland. Combining data from authoritative institutions and actual tournament performance, Spain is currently the most favored team to win the title, with France close behind, forming a "two-horse race" for the championship.

I. Comparison of Predictions from Authoritative Institutions

Goldman Sachs Model (pre-tournament release): Spain 26% > France 19% > Argentina 14% > England 5%

Opta Supercomputer (updated during knockout stage): France 22.85% > Argentina 16.16% > Spain 13.48%

The two models show an interesting divergence — Goldman Sachs strongly backs Spain, while Opta pushed France to the top during the knockout stage. But regardless of which model, the top three are always Spain, France, and Argentina, with other teams' probabilities all below 10%.

II. Why Spain is the Most Favored?

First, dominant defensive performance. Spain has not conceded a single goal in this World Cup so far, keeping clean sheets in multiple consecutive matches. Goalkeeper Unai Simón has gone over 600 minutes without conceding. Goldman Sachs specifically points out that Spain has the highest Elo rating in this tournament, excellent offensive scoring ability, and continuously improving form.

Second, the possession-based system has reached its peak. Rodri anchors the midfield, with Yamal and Baena providing width on the flanks, and average ball possession approaching 70%. This style of play, which won Euro 2024 undefeated, is equally devastating on the World Cup stage.

Third, relatively favorable draw. According to Goldman Sachs' predicted path to the final, Spain will face Argentina in the final at MetLife Stadium in New York on July 19 — if all goes smoothly, they will not encounter France before the semifinals.

The hidden concerns are also clear: lack of a true clinical center forward; Morata is not a "game-winning" killer in key tough matches; the defense line is relatively young, with questionable resilience against counterattacks; the psychological shadow of being eliminated in the round of 16 in the past two World Cups has not fully dissipated.

III. Why is France the Strongest Challenger?

Opta pushed France's title probability to 22.85% during the knockout stage, surpassing Spain. The core reasons are:

Mbappé's dominance. He has already scored 7 goals in this World Cup, leading the scoring chart, and scored a penalty in the round of 16 to eliminate Paraguay, winning 1-0 with a clean sheet. Dembélé and Olise provide continuous output on the flanks, while Tchouaméni and Rabiot build a balanced midfield both offensively and defensively.

Unmatched bench depth. In the long knockout stage, France's rotation advantage will be further amplified under July's high temperatures.

But France's worries are equally real: unstable locker room atmosphere and the old problem of intense internal competition always exist. More critically, Opta data shows that France is likely to meet Spain in the semifinals — if they clash early, both teams' title probabilities will be significantly compressed.

IV. Argentina: The Draw is the Biggest Weapon

Argentina is given 14% and 16.16% title probabilities by Goldman Sachs and Opta respectively, ranking third. This team's biggest advantage is not raw strength, but the fixture draw — they will only potentially meet Spain in the final, the most ideal advancement route among all top teams.

Messi, in the round of 16 against Egypt, came back from 0-2 down to score three goals in 13 minutes, completing a 3-2 comeback, and updated his personal World Cup goal tally to 21, leading history. However, the defending champion curse (no team has successfully defended the title since 1978) always hangs over their heads, and every knockout match is like walking a tightrope.

V. The Remaining Four Teams: Dark Horses Need Miracles

England (Goldman Sachs only 5%): A luxurious squad but deeply rooted tradition of underperforming in major tournaments. Bellingham and Kane's dual-core drive is the biggest confidence, but both Opta and Goldman Sachs are not optimistic.

Morocco: From last tournament's dark horse to regulars. Hakimi and Ounahi are solid both offensively and defensively, Bono has gone 34 matches unbeaten, but overall squad depth clearly lags behind European giants.

Norway: Haaland's 7 goals tie Norway's total goals from their previous three World Cup appearances combined. He has scored in 14 consecutive official national team matches, but this is his first World Cup, and overall experience is lacking.

Belgium: De Bruyne has been sidelined, De Ketelaere takes the lead, but midfield general Onana is out with a serious injury. The golden generation is nearing dusk.

Switzerland: Showing resilience by eliminating Colombia on penalties, but lacking offensive finishing ability, with extremely low margin for error to win the title.

VI. Comprehensive Judgment

If we have to pick one team most likely to win, Spain and France are tied as the first tier. Spain has a slight edge with their clean sheet record and possession dominance, while France stays close with their squad depth and Mbappé's individual ability. Argentina is the "dark horse king," while England and the rest need a miracle to reach the top.

The upcoming quarterfinals on July 10 will be a critical watershed — especially the two upper half matchups: France vs Morocco and Spain vs Belgium, which could largely determine the direction of the title.