#Trump Says He May Strike Iran Again Tonight #很多人可能都有这样一个疑惑：为什么今晚 BTC Hasn’t Dropped Much, but Crude Oil Spiked Sharply?

Let me share my view. In the market right now, the focus isn’t on the war itself anymore, but on whether the war will affect global energy supply.

After the situation in the Middle East escalated, the first thing the market thought of wasn’t Bitcoin, but the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil has to pass through this route. Once transportation is disrupted, international crude supply will tighten rapidly, so crude oil prices surged first.

So why hasn’t BTC dropped much?

There are three reasons.

First, the market already had some expectations for geopolitical conflict.

From the U.S. approving the strike plan, to Iran’s response, and then both sides continuously releasing messages, the capital wasn’t completely unprepared. When risk has already been priced in ahead of time, when it actually materializes, BTC’s reaction is actually not as dramatic as many people had imagined.

Second, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset.

In the past, when war broke out, the market would dump all risk assets first.

But now, with BTC ETFs, institutional capital, and corporate allocations, its pricing logic is increasingly influenced by liquidity rather than driven by a single event.

As long as the market hasn’t started repricing rate-cut expectations, BTC’s pressure is usually smaller than that of crude oil.

Third, and most importantly.

The crude oil rise is just a result.

What really matters is whether it will push inflation higher.

If oil prices surge purely due to sentiment and then quickly pull back, then BTC often repairs itself just as quickly.

But if oil prices continue to stay high and the market starts worrying that inflation could heat up again—if Fed rate-cut expectations get delayed, and Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen—then the pressure will gradually transmit to BTC.

So what we really need to watch now are three indicators:

Whether crude oil continues to rise, rather than a one-day spike.
Whether transport through the Strait of Hormuz is truly affected.
Whether the market starts cutting its rate-cut expectations.

That’s also why, for the same piece of news, crude oil has a huge surge while BTC’s reaction remains relatively restrained. What ultimately determines the next leg of the market isn’t the gunfire itself, but whether this conflict will ultimately change the direction of global liquidity.