$77 的 $SOL

First, look at the surface: bad news piling up, and retail investors panicking and hitting “sell all.”
In the past 24 hours it’s down 4%, with a low of 76.64. Over 7 days it’s still up 4.89%, but today’s huge red candle is too eye-catching. The K-line is telling you: the 82 level has slammed into the wall three times—and keeps getting knocked back.
But the weekly chart is up 19%, the monthly is up 16%. From the $60 bottom, it’s already bounced 38%. So do you believe in today’s red candle, or in the trend from the past month?
First thing: Pump.fun is dumping, but the market is already “immune.”
Pumpfun sold another 122,000 SOL, cashing out $10.08 million; cumulatively it has already dumped 4.65 million SOL.
Sounds scary? But look at the price action—SOL hasn’t broken down. It rebounded back above 77 from 76.6.
Same bad news, first time the drop was 5%, second time 3%, and the third time the market simply ignored it. Pumpfun has been selling since last year and has sold nearly $800 million. What does “bad news is fully priced in” mean? This is it.
Second thing: ETF inflows keep coming—institutions are voting with their feet.
Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $527 million over the week. Ethereum ETF outflow was $13.67 million. Meanwhile, the Solana ETF recorded a net inflow of $5.75 million.
Yesterday, the Fidelity Solana Fund added another $1.67 million, continuing a 4-day streak of positive inflows.
Institutions are withdrawing from BTC and ETH. The same group of institutions is adding more to SOL. Money is rotating—Solana is the winner.
Third thing: On-chain data is exploding, but the price is being undervalued.
RWA assets surged 106% to $8.7 billion; tokenized assets are landing aggressively on Solana.
Weekly non-voting transaction volume first broke 1 billion.
Active addresses jumped 76.8% in two weeks, reaching 29.7 million.
On-chain spot trading volume for tokenized assets hit a new Q2 high of $5.77 billion.
In the first half of the year, Solana dominated all major metrics. Price is down 48%, yet on-chain data is setting new highs.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 80 → 82.26 (61.8% Fibonacci) → 85 → 90
Support below: 76.6 (today’s low) → 75 → 70 (the iron bottom)
Short-term traders:
Buy in batches on 76.5–77.5, stop loss 74.5. First target 80–82—take half off there. If 82 breaks out with volume, chase for 85–90.
Swing players:
Wait for the daily close to hold above 82 before going heavy; targets 90–100. This is not a time for panic—it’s a time to watch the screen.
Long-term believers:
DCA in the 76–78 range. Solana has fallen 44% over six months; on-chain data is all at new highs—this is a classic divergence between fundamentals and price. Hold for 1–2 years; target 120–150. The bet is on Alpenglow going live + sustained ETF inflows + a RWA breakout.
#GUSDYieldRisesto3.8%