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IMF Keeps 2026 Growth Forecast Largely Unchanged

2026-07-08 14:50:15

The IMF kept its 2026 global growth forecast virtually unchanged at 3%, just 0.1 percentage point below its April projection, citing the world economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment, according to its July 2026 World Economic Outlook. The 2027 growth outlook was revised upward to 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, may still take time to materialize. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. The IMF projects growth of 2.3% for the US in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while China is expected to expand by 4.6% and 4.1%, respectively. India’s growth is forecast at 6.4% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, Japan at 0.6% and 0.7%, the Eurozone at 0.9% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.0% and 1.3%.

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