What’s happening in the US stock market and crypto world lately? Let’s break down the hot spots in one minute!

Friends, if you’ve opened your stock trading app or crypto app recently, your heart is probably racing a bit. The market right now is like a roller coaster — on one side, US stocks are partying, on the other, Bitcoin is “jumping at every rumor.” Today, let’s talk in plain English about what’s being hyped in both the US stock market and the crypto space.

First, US stocks: Dow hits record, chips and Tesla are “rocketing”

The recent performance of US stocks can only be described as “crazy.” Just yesterday (July 6), the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 53,000 points for the first time in history, hitting a new high! The overall market sentiment is extremely euphoric.

Who are the main drivers of this rally? Mostly tech stocks and chip stocks. Tesla surged 6% in a single day, and AMD also jumped more than 6%. Even normally stable stocks like Apple and Google moved higher. In addition, there is an interesting phenomenon: a lot of capital has been pulled out of semiconductor stocks that had previously risen too much and poured into other tech stocks — this is called “sector rotation.”

But don’t get too carried away. Everyone is now watching the Federal Reserve (the US central bank). This Wednesday, they will release the latest meeting minutes, and everyone is guessing: will they raise rates next? For now, it seems most likely they will hold steady, but if any “hawkish” (tightening) signals slip out, the market could shake again.

Now, crypto: One sentence from Trump sends Bitcoin flying

If US stocks are rising on earnings and expectations, Bitcoin has recently been rising purely on “words.”

Just a few days ago, a reporter asked Trump whether his new “Trump account” would include Bitcoin in the future. Trump replied very vaguely: “It could happen.”

Just those five words! No specific policy, no documentation — Bitcoin jumped from around $62,000 and climbed sharply, briefly approaching $65,000. Along with it, crypto-related stocks in the US market (such as Circle, Bitmine) also surged. What does this show? It shows the market is extremely sensitive to signals of “official recognition of crypto” — Trump basically holds the “emotional remote control” of the market.

But don’t let the superficial boom fool you!

Although the price looks good, we need to stay cautious.

First, is real money coming in? No. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin has actually seen net capital outflows over the past 30 days. The current rally is more about intra-market fund shuffling, plus forced covering by short sellers (short squeeze), rather than a large influx of new money building positions at low levels.

Second, where are we in the cycle? There’s a crypto metric called MVRV (roughly indicating whether people are in profit or loss). Recently, this indicator dropped to around 1.1, suggesting the market is not far from a “bottom,” but it hasn’t fully bottomed out yet. Whether the current rebound is a “bear market bottoming phase” or a “trend reversal” is anyone’s guess.

Third, what is Wall Street doing? Don’t forget, those Wall Street pros haven’t been idle. When Bitcoin was falling earlier, they aggressively bought put options (betting on a decline). Now that it’s risen, who knows if they are “pumping and dumping”?

To summarize:

The current market is more about sentiment than substance. Trump’s “lip service” can spark short-term euphoria, but it can’t replace real capital inflows. For ordinary retail investors, the biggest thing to watch out for now is: don’t rush in as “fuel” to be dumped on when others are pumping the price.

Investing? It’s fine to watch the show, but if you’re going to put real money in, you need to look at fundamentals and where the real money is flowing. Stay clear-headed and don’t let FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) take over!
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