$BTC Personal view on U.S. military strikes on Iran + revocation of oil sales permits

The U.S. military simultaneously launched strikes against Iran and revoked Iran's oil export exemptions. The temporary memorandum of understanding that had just been in place for only two weeks has effectively become void. Overnight, crude oil surged over 5%, driven by a dual shock of supply-demand and geopolitical factors. The previous exemption allowed 800,000 to 1 million barrels of Iranian crude to be supplied to the market daily. After July 17, new transactions will be completely halted, compounded by soaring risks of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Global crude supply expectations have tightened, and geopolitical risk premiums are quickly returning.

The U.S. is applying military pressure on one hand and cutting off Iran's oil financial sources on the other, aiming to force Iran to negotiate concessions while boosting its domestic oil and gas industry. However, there is a risk of continued escalation of the conflict. Capital market styles are rapidly diverging: oil and gas extraction, oilfield services, defense, and gold benefit; refining, aviation, consumer electronics come under pressure. High oil prices will also raise global inflation expectations and suppress growth sector valuations.

In the short term, the market is event-driven, not suitable for chasing highs; in the medium to long term, two key points to watch: first, the actual decline in Iranian crude exports after the grace period on July 17; second, whether the Strait of Hormuz navigation continues to deteriorate. Subsequent allocation can focus on low-valuation upstream oil and gas and defense safe-haven assets, avoiding industries that will be damaged by high oil prices.