Legendary Wall Street bear Jeremy Grantham blasts SpaceX's 90% collapse probability: Looking at the prospectus again after 50 years is a big joke.

This will be the biggest joke in financial history 50 years from now? According to a blockbuster report by Fortune today (8th), Wall Street legendary investor and GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham issued a devastating warning to space giant SpaceX, which has just completed its historic IPO and joined the Nasdaq 100 Index. He slammed the IPO as "the craziest bubble in human history," bluntly stating that the probability of its eventual crash is as high as 90%, and that history 50 years from now will mercilessly laugh at the grand vision in its prospectus.
(Previous context: Wall Street investment bank Raymond James gives SpaceX a sky-high target price of "$800," mocked by white-haired stock god Serenity: "Written as a joke?")
(Background supplement: SpaceX officially renamed to SpaceXAI, Musk ties space and AI together)

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• Ruthlessly Criticizing the High Valuation Myth: Crash Probability at Least 90%
• Wall Street Bull vs. Bear Showdown: SpaceX Valuation and Risks Coexist
• Passive Funds Forced to "Take Over," Fundamentals Already Distorted?

Just as Wall Street falls into collective frenzy over Elon Musk's space empire landing on the public market, a legendary veteran who has witnessed the rise and fall of countless financial bubbles has poured the iciest bucket of cold water.

According to a latest report on July 8, 2026, by senior reporter Eleanor Pringle of U.S. mainstream financial media outlet Fortune, Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of asset management firm GMO, and a famous "permabear," launched a scathing critique of SpaceX, which has just joined the Nasdaq 100 Index, in an interview on Morningstar's The Long View podcast.

Ruthlessly Criticizing the High Valuation Myth: Crash Probability at Least 90%

"Everyone is lining up to tell you to buy this craziest IPO in history," Grantham sarcastically remarked without mercy. He stated bluntly that the grand ambitions proclaimed in SpaceX's prospectus — including "building systems and technologies to make life multiplanetary" and a total addressable market (TAM) estimate of $28.5 trillion, 90% of which is related to AI — are completely products of extreme market狂热.

Grantham boldly predicted that SpaceX is highly likely to face a crash, with a probability of at least 90%. He explained that to reach its current valuation, AI technology would need to achieve "massive developments" in the future that completely transform human life. At that point, the world would become extremely strange, possibly even "ruled" by robots. He asserted: "50 years from now, people will tell the story of SpaceX, quote passages from the prospectus, and laugh." This collective hysteria will be nailed onto the pillar of historical bubble shame.

Wall Street Bull vs. Bear Showdown: SpaceX Valuation and Risks Coexist

This super unicorn, currently trading on the public market at around $150 per share (slightly above the IPO target price of $135, but down about 7% over the past month), is now plunging Wall Street into a polarized debate:

| Institution / Expert Name | Latest Rating and Target Price for SpaceX | Core Argument and Controversy | | --- | --- | --- | | Jeremy Grantham (GMO) | Predicts crash, views as bubble peak | Multiplanetary vision is too absurd; the $28.5 trillion TAM is an artificial illusion propping up the price. | | Morgan Stanley | Sees upside to $300 | Bullish on its absolute monopoly in commercial aerospace, satellite communications, and defense infrastructure. | | J.P. Morgan | Sees upside to $225 | Believes Musk's target of $1 trillion in revenue by 2031 is "possible, but requires strong execution." | | Goldman Sachs | Sees upside to $205 | Generally bullish stance, agreeing with its flywheel effect as future industrial infrastructure. |

Passive Funds Forced to "Take Over," Fundamentals Already Distorted?

Notably, aside from Grantham's pessimistic prophecy, Wall Street analysts have also generally pointed out substantive risks that SpaceX cannot avoid. First is the "key person risk" heavily reliant on Elon Musk, who currently holds an absolute 82% voting power alone. Second, SpaceX's highly touted AI core business is currently "getting its butt kicked" by strong competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic in terms of actual market progress.

However, amid this fundamentally controversial situation, SpaceX's stock price seems to have an "invincible body" in the short term. Grantham sharply pointed out that due to the Nasdaq 100 Index's fast-entry rules, countless passive ETFs tracking the index globally are forced to collectively "take over" and buy SpaceX at any cost before the listing date. This severe demand-over-supply situation, while creating a short-term boom of sustained stock price increases, Grantham emphasized is entirely artificially manufactured liquidity support, not genuine fundamentals. When the tide goes out and the frantic passive buying ends, this $10 trillion castle in the air may face the most brutal liquidation in U.S. stock market history.