[Red Packet] 7.8 Review. The market continues to shrink in volume and sell off steadily; the approach and direction are on point; the timing is precise; and the account still keeps rising steadily!

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First, let's talk about account operations: The following are all simulation account practice.

Buy:

Shenzhou Digital Bought below the moving average, floating profit 3+. Missed the daily limit by a few ticks, mainly dragged down by the broader market. Logic: Exclusive channel for Huawei Ascend/Kunpeng dual ecosystem, core carrier of domestic computing power. Inspur Information's performance pre-increase led to a large single limit-up bid at the open. Shenzhou Digital saw aggressive buying at the open. Originally planned to select Ziguang, but it opened too high, so gave up. Shenzhou Digital couldn't be chased at the open; needed to observe if there was divergence after the rally, and whether the sector would rally and then fall back. After the pullback, support below the moving average was decent, so entered. Offensive defense. (For trend-type slow targets like this, you can't chase highs or hit limit-ups, only buy on pullback support to expand profits.)

Sell:

Huanghe Xuanfeng Entered yesterday's open at 2%, sold today on a rally and pullback. Floating profit 1+. Logic from yesterday not repeated. As long as you entered at the low point yesterday, no need to worry. With so much capital entering yesterday, the worst case today would be a pull-up for self-rescue and then distribution. Yesterday was completely dragged down by the market.

T+0:

Huatian Technology Low buy on Monday, floating profit 14+. Cleared half position at the daily limit yesterday. Cleared remaining today on rally and pullback. Bought back a batch at around -3% underwater. Changdian was picked up near its limit-down. Buying on dips underwater is fine. Logic will be explained at entry, not repeated later.

Holdings:

Shenzhen Huaqiang: Low buy on the 9th of last month, floating profit 14+ (Distribution leader plus oversold, also has MLCC attributes, multi-attribute). Continue holding, held for a long time, continue to hold pattern. Although profit is not large after holding for long, not changing positions randomly also avoids market risk. Use flexible positions as the vanguard.

China Great Wall: Entered on the 18th of last month at -1%, floating profit 10+ (Oversold target, domestic computing power, CPU has absolute say). The Great Wall will never fall! Same thinking as Huaqiang.

Account double bang

Now look at the market

The Shanghai Composite closed at 3970.88, down 0.49%; the Shenzhen Component fell 1.87%; the ChiNext fell 1.70%; the STAR 50 was okay, up 0.73%; the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 2.59%, quite miserable. Total two-day turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan, down 15.8 billion from yesterday. This volume honestly can't support the market. The most critical is the number of rising and falling stocks: only 1,591 rose, 3,786 fell, over 3,700 stocks dropped, with 47 hitting the daily limit and 40 hitting the limit down. Such volume? Such ratio? It's not much different from a bear market! The index decline doesn't look too big, but if you picked the wrong direction, open your account and you'll likely see much worse than the index.

The early morning dip and recovery was actually quite deceptive. The Shanghai index once pulled from 3967 to 4011, and the STAR 50 surged 3%+ in the morning session. Many people were shouting reversal. But in the afternoon, it revealed its true colors—volume couldn't keep up, and once profit-taking started, it couldn't be contained, finally closing with a long upper shadow yin line. This trend honestly doesn't look good, indicating heavy selling pressure above 4000 points. The bulls charged but couldn't break through.

Now talk about sectors

The biggest feature today is just four words—hard to soft rotation. What does that mean? In previous days, funds were speculating on semiconductor hardware, silicon wafers, and GPUs; today they collectively cashed out and moved into the software end—operating systems rose nearly 5%, cloud computing up 4%, big data up 3.5%, the whole Xinchuan line erupted. Inspur Information announced a mid-year performance pre-increase and directly opened at the daily limit. This stock is a bellwether, indicating that computing power sector performance can indeed be realized. Wangsu Technology and深信服 each hit 20cm limit-ups; Data Center, Yuncai Zhilian, and Hengwei Technology also followed with limit-ups. The computing power leasing line basically reached a climax today.

The oil and gas sector also had a wave: Tongyuan Petroleum and CNOOC Services rose over 5%. Logic: US military strikes on Iran, geopolitical risk heats up oil prices. The banking sector also supported the market: Bank of China rose over 2%, not surprising—large banks are safe havens in weak markets. For gold, Zhaojin Gold hit the limit-up. The central bank has increased gold reserves for 20 consecutive months; as of end of June, reserves reached 75.44 million ounces. This data is a solid positive.

The declining direction was quite brutal. Lithium ore collapsed today: Rongjie Stock directly hit limit-down; Shengxin Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yahua Group all on limit-down. Lithium carbonate spot fell 12% in a day, coupled with domestic large mine resumption and overseas production ramp-up. The market no longer buys the lithium shortage narrative.

Humanoid robots also sold off: Estun Automation hit limit-down, Leaderdrive fell over 10%, Rifa Precision hit limit-down. To put it bluntly, these stocks had risen too much in the first half. Estun PE is 320x, Leaderdrive 400x. Who dares to pick them up during the mid-year report window? Unitree Technology IPO landed, expectations realized, funds directly withdrew. Also, construction machinery, auto parts, and motor sectors were all down: Dayang Motor hit limit-down, Xinrui Electronic fell over 18%.

Trend analysis

1: Today's K-line is ugly. The early morning dip to 3967 recovered to 4011, then was beaten back to 3970 at close, forming a long upper shadow. This shadow indicates very heavy selling pressure in the 4000-4030 range. The bulls' tentative attack was repelled. In the short term, the 4000 integer mark has changed from support to resistance. Whether it can be re-established is a question. The 20-day moving average is still rising, indicating the medium-term trend hasn't broken. The short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages may be broken, but as long as the 20-day line holds, the medium-term pattern remains. Support below looks at the 3950-3960 area, which is a dense trading zone near the previous low. Technically, the Shanghai index has been grinding in the 4030-4060 range for nearly two weeks; every time it breaks upward, it gets beaten down. Now it's testing support at 3960-4000. If this support fails, next support is at 3900-3920. Conversely, if it breaks above 4060 with volume, it could open upward space. Currently, it's a key directional choice.

2: Volume: 2.56 trillion, down 17.6 billion from yesterday. This volume is not ample at the current market level. Today's volume increased in the morning and decreased in the afternoon, typical of insufficient bullish momentum. If volume continues to shrink tomorrow, it will likely keep grinding in the 3950-4000 range.

3: The STAR 50 was a highlight today. It rose 3% in the morning and closed up 0.73%. Although it fell back at the end, it was relatively strong. The core is that semiconductor equipment and computing power directions have performance verification, so funds are willing to pay a premium. If the STAR 50 continues to strengthen, it will boost overall market sentiment.

4: From a capital flow perspective, this is typical stock game. Northbound funds net sold slightly today, mainly in optical modules, consumer electronics, and other varieties that rose sharply in the first half. They added positions in banks, oil and gas, and semiconductor equipment. Domestic main funds did the same—cashing out at highs, taking over at lows. Without incremental fund inflows, the index will oscillate and grind.

Consecutive limit-up board

7 boards: Hengshang Energy Saving. Restructuring: plans to acquire a storage company for cross-border reorganization, also a reassurance for tech divergence! Honestly, this stock reaching 7 boards exceeds most people's cognition. Pure emotional game. Whether it can reach 8 boards tomorrow depends entirely on market sentiment. Its stock character has entered the monster stock stage, unrelated to fundamentals, just capital relay.

3 boards: Daheng Technology. An old face in the tech direction, active stock character. But honestly, this position is a bit awkward. After 3 boards, it's either acceleration or divergence. Tomorrow is key.

2 boards: (Brief explanation) Shiyuan Stock (mid-year pre-increase + AI education informatization), Weirgao (AI power PCB + large orders), Meishi Technology (AI vision + edge computing), Damingcheng (computing power operation + 6G concept). Among the 2-board group, Shiyuan and Weirgao have stronger logic with performance or order support; Meishi and Damingcheng are more thematic speculation, sustainability depends on turnover.

First board worth watching: Inspur Information (performance pre-increase limit-up), Huaqin Technology (server ODM leader), Shandong Expressway (defensive attribute), GRG Banking Equipment (state-owned cloud concept). Whether Inspur Information's limit-up can open for turnover tomorrow is key. If it can hold after opening, the computing power direction can continue.

Tomorrow's observation points and operation ideas

From end of June to now: The market has oscillated in the 4000-4258 range for over two weeks. After the stage high of 4258, the market hasn't found an upward breakthrough, with funds rotating between highs and lows internally. After entering July's mid-year report verification period, divergence emerged: stocks with performance (computing power servers, storage, advanced packaging) can maintain or even strengthen; pure thematic speculation started to recede. Sectors like lithium ore and robots, which have risen too much, lack super-expectation catalysts during the earnings window, and funds have strong profit-taking intentions.

The core contradiction of the current market is: Limited existing funds, incremental funds on the sidelines, but structural opportunities exist. The computing power line is the strongest direction in the mid-year report season, with performance, industry logic, and policy support—the clearest main line currently. But beware of divergence after a climax; don't chase highs.

Focus directions: Relay opportunities after computing power leasing divergence (if divergence tomorrow and the leader can hold, can buy on dips), semiconductor equipment (supported during performance verification period), gold (central bank purchases + geopolitical risk), Xinchuan software (continuation of hard-to-soft rotation).

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Technical post direct link:

Weekend Technical Post (Part 5): You don't lose money in stocks because of poor technical skills, but because your model is chaotic. Thorough explanation of short-term and trend trading logic.

Weekend Technical Post (Part 4): Trading Survival: Defense as Foundation, Offense as Weapon!

Weekend Technical Post (Part 3): Short-term trading can also be steady and long-lasting.

Weekend Technical Post (Part 2): How short-term traders accurately review!

Weekend Technical Post (Part 1): Nine elements for short-term high-low board success rate.

Weekend dry goods sharing. Master the rules of collective auction. Distinguish between leading stocks, central troops, and laggards, stay away from follower miscellaneous stocks!

How to improve the success rate of hitting limit-ups, and what to do the next day with bad limit-ups and explosive volume limit-ups.

Core tactics of swing trading.

Only trade patterns within your cognition.

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