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This is the performance of the S&P 500 since 2017, with a dashed trend line below roughly outlining the "main backbone" of this multi-year rally.
Every major pullback eventually fell back near this line and then bounced.
Similarly, every over-optimistic surge eventually returned to this reality.
Focus on the current position. The S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and we are now far above the main backbone.
Analyst Charlie Bilello studied the market's performance since the March 2009 low and concluded:
Although the S&P 500 has risen over 1000% since then (an average annual gain of about 16%), the journey has been far from smooth.
During this period, the market experienced 30 pullbacks of more than 5%. Among them:
10 pullbacks exceeded 10%
4 exceeded 20%
1 exceeded 30%
People assume that if they could avoid the crashes of 2011, 2018, 2020, and 2022, they could capture all the upside without any downside risk.
The problem is, no genius can consistently do that.
For short-term traders, volatility is opportunity. For long-term investors, enduring panic is the necessary price to pay.
And these declines are not rare events. Since 1928, S&P investors have averaged a 13% drawdown per year.
That means even in up years, one may have to endure double-digit declines.