Big news at 2 AM tonight! The first Fed June meeting minutes under Warsh are set to be released!

After the June meeting, the Fed only issued an ultra-short 130-word statement: neither mentioning whether rates will be hiked next nor how they'll be adjusted, and the chair himself didn't disclose his own rate projections — essentially giving the market almost no clues. As a result, these meeting minutes have become the only key for the market to gauge the Fed's policy direction.

Core highlights:
① Whether the description of inflation includes "sticky", hinting at a rate-hike tendency
② Whether there is in-depth discussion of AI's supply-side impact on productivity
③ Voting concentration among FOMC members — whether the hawkish camp has a say in September
④ Whether the number of internal hawkish dissenters has increased

Biggest question: Will the minutes themselves also become more streamlined? Some institutions predict that Warsh does not want the market to dig policy clues from the minutes and may tighten this information channel as well.

Market impact: Since June, the number of public speeches by Fed officials has dropped significantly, reducing the policy information available to the market. This information gap may amplify price volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies, and other assets.