Market Outlook

Breaking below 63 is bearish for longs, may retest 61 again
The top of this week's range is 64700, bottom is 61300. Both appeared on Monday. Subsequently, the middle of the range around 63000 became support
After holding 63, it retested the area above 64 again early this morning, but then broke below 63 today due to negative news from Iran
Yesterday's post noted that breaking below 63 would be unfavorable for longs, with the next support on the pullback around 61
A bullish scenario is a bounce after piercing 61, with a target of returning to the range high around 64700 (i.e., Monday's range operation)
Many are anticipating the "TACO" scenario to occur. If the "TACO" scenario happens, a significant rebound can be expected. According to historical patterns, the likelihood of Trump TACO is very high, but the timing of TACO is uncertain
If TACO happens next Monday, then Thursday, Friday, and the weekend might see deeper pullbacks. Especially on weekends, when past Iran war situations were more severe, negative news dominated
So in terms of timing, the best time for TACO would be today, so that Bitcoin can quickly return above 64; if it's next Monday, then a deeper pullback is expected. If 61 does not hold, it will go to test around 58 (quarterly opening price), then rebound after TACO
From a cyclical perspective, there will be no major drop or breakdown in July, with a higher probability of a breakdown in September.
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