US-Iran geopolitical tensions are heating up again. The market shows significant divergence: crude oil rises due to geopolitical risk premium, while gold and BTC are under pressure and declining, and the AI sector and semiconductor memory segment continue to weaken. Sorting out the complete context of this round of events: The US side reported that in the past two days, Iran attacked three oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatar-affiliated vessel. The US Central Command characterized this action as a violation of the ceasefire agreement between the two sides.

Immediately, the US launched large-scale airstrikes, targeting over 80 locations, including air defense positions, command centers, coastal radars, anti-ship missile launch facilities, and maritime vehicles deployed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard around the strait. The US operation aims directly at weakening Iran's military capability to disrupt international shipping lanes. At the same time, the US Treasury revoked the temporary waiver previously granted to Iran for oil and gas exports, completely cutting off Iran's crude oil export channels.

Iran simultaneously launched countermeasures, striking US military posts in Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drone swarms, and claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Trump's statement was particularly tough, declaring that the previous temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran is void and that he has no intention of continuing bilateral communication. He harshly criticized the Iranian authorities, calling their leadership paranoid and asserting that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it will definitely use them.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to deteriorate, forcing the market to reprice the risk of energy supply disruptions. The impact of volatility is not limited to crude oil but directly raises expectations of global inflation and tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If energy prices remain high, the likelihood of the Fed maintaining high interest rates or even increasing tightening measures will rise significantly. Geopolitical conflict is merely the trigger for market movements; the strength of the US dollar and the global liquidity cycle are the core logic that determines the pricing of various assets.

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