Fragile MOU vs. Unstoppable Harvesting

I. Core Event

1. Key statement: Trump stated at the NATO summit that the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has ended, and that subsequent negotiations will be handled by Witkoff and Kushner.

2. Market reaction: This remark directly triggered significant volatility in crude oil and gold. Brent crude rose 5.77%, WTI crude rose 5.93%, and gold also moved higher in tandem.

3. Background: Previously, market reactions to U.S. military strikes on commercial ships and attacks on Iran were relatively controllable. But just the statement that the "MOU is over" caused market fluctuations beyond expectations.

II. Deeper Logic

1. The U.S. oil price band strategy:

• The U.S. considers international oil prices within the range of $80–$90 per barrel to be controllable.

• When oil prices fall below $80, Trump takes more aggressive actions; if oil prices rise back above $80, the attitude may soften.

• This "range fluctuation" is the safe window for the U.S. to complete its harvesting.

2. Trump's true intention:

• The temporary MOU reached for the World Cup, U.S. National Day, and other milestones were essentially "nice words" rather than a genuine stance.

• His public statement that the "MOU is over" is the real thought. If he subsequently sends a signal of easing, it will inevitably be with a clear purpose.

III. Conclusion

The core contradictions between the U.S. and Iran cannot be reconciled. Any MOU or agreement lacking substantive support and mutual trust is meaningless. The market is no longer influenced by "negotiation rhetoric" and is more focused on actual actions and genuine intentions.