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#SpaceX静默期结束 SpaceX’s 25-day post-listing quiet period has ended. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan and Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas released research reports, and both issued an initial “Buy” rating for SpaceX.
However, the two institutions’ valuations differ greatly: Morgan Stanley sets a target price for SpaceX at $300, while Goldman Sachs has it at $205—a valuation gap as large as $1 trillion.
Other Wall Street institutions’ target prices for SpaceX are as follows: Citigroup $200, JPMorgan $225, and Deutsche Bank $255.
Morgan Stanley uses a 15-year discounted cash flow method for cash flows across various business segments, and supports its valuation by cross-validating with valuation multiples. Its forecast for the company’s short- and mid-term performance is more conservative, while its outlook for the long term is more optimistic. It expects SpaceX’s adjusted EBITDA in 2029 to be $162 billion, and the company will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035.
Goldman Sachs’ valuation model is directly based on 2029 performance forecast data, calculating valuation using relative valuation multiples. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than Morgan Stanley about SpaceX’s short- and mid-term financial performance. SpaceX will be able to achieve positive free cash flow by 2031. By the end of 2029, the company’s adjusted EBITDA (EBITDA) will jump from last year’s $6.58 billion to $3520 billion.
Both institutions acknowledge that there is a gap between their forecast data and the company’s current actual operating conditions.
Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said commercial spaceflight is a brand-new industry, and SpaceX’s future development depends heavily on multiple core technologies that have not yet been commercialized, including a fully reusable Starship capable of thousands of launches per year, as well as orbital computing power, and more.
Sheridan of Goldman Sachs expressed a similar view in his report: “In many areas, SpaceX has repeatedly delivered technological breakthroughs that industry experts previously believed were impossible (even though its development pace does not fully align with investors’ timelines). In particular, it has a clear advantage in the low-cost buildout of various infrastructure-as-a-service businesses.”$SPCX
However, the two institutions have significantly different valuations. Morgan Stanley gives SpaceX a target price of $300, while Goldman Sachs sets it at only $205, with a valuation gap of up to $1 trillion.
Target prices for SpaceX from other Wall Street institutions are as follows: Citigroup $200, JPMorgan Chase $225, Deutsche Bank $255.
Morgan Stanley uses a 15-year discounted cash flow model for each business segment, cross-validated with valuation multiples to support its valuation. Its forecast for the company's short-to-medium-term performance is more conservative, but more optimistic in the long term. It expects SpaceX's adjusted EBITDA in 2029 to be $162 billion, and that the company will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035.
Goldman Sachs' valuation model is directly based on 2029 performance forecasts, calculated using relative valuation multiples. Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than Morgan Stanley about SpaceX's short-to-medium-term financial performance, predicting that SpaceX will achieve positive free cash flow by 2031. By the end of 2029, the company's adjusted EBITDA will surge from last year's $6.58 billion to $352 billion.
Both institutions acknowledge that there is a gap between their forecasts and the company's current actual operating conditions.
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas stated that the commercial aerospace industry is entirely new, and SpaceX's future development is highly dependent on multiple core technologies that have yet to be commercialized, including the fully reusable Starship capable of thousands of launches per year, orbital computing power, and more.
Goldman Sachs' Sheridan expressed a similar view in the report, "In many areas, SpaceX has repeatedly achieved technological breakthroughs that industry experts once deemed impossible (though its development pace does not fully align with investors' timelines), especially with its significant advantages in low-cost deployment of various infrastructure-as-a-service businesses."$SPCX