Wednesday, July 8, 2026 Market Review: Waiting for a Change in Environment

I don't have time to write this review tonight because I need to summarize recent trading techniques. However, I still want to outline a few details about today's market [TaoGuBa]

1: Where is the tech sector, and how strong is the rebound?

Currently, I am not bearish on domestic semiconductors, but at this level, domestic semiconductors are not suitable for going higher. This is considered from both the upper and lower limits. The rhythm within domestic semiconductors is highly fragmented and inconsistent.

Equipment is the most resilient sector right now. Others, such as IGBT, silicon carbide, photoresist, target materials, etc., are unbearable to look at. Yesterday, it was said that Huatian Technology would go up, and Changdian Technology would pull first — that's a matter of market cap details. Last time it was Jingfang Technology. Today, Changdian Technology opened and went straight to the limit-down, with a bearish engulfing candle. It's not about whether you can trade it; such trades are meaningless.

2: Tianqi Lithium hit the limit-down, and traditional old-school stocks are still falling. Only some concept stocks are rising. The most important thing is that Tianqi Lithium hit the limit-down. Yahua Group released its earnings yesterday, retail investors couldn't get in, and it also hit the limit-down today. Including Giant Network today, which released earnings, the竞价 (auction) was accepted then rejected. From memory chips to lithium batteries to others, it's all the same. This depends on high and low positions, and it has nothing to do with earnings. The lithium mine sell-off directly relates to the issue mentioned in the comments: if interest rates are raised, what do you think and how should you respond? I'm not asking whether rate hikes are possible; most of your so-called friends and online opinions about whether rate hikes are possible are not as professional as me. If I'm asking this question, it's because I've discovered something! Because the market is currently treating it as if rates have been raised.

3: The robot sector index dropped 15% in three days. Does the main force still have cost? If the main force's playstyle has no cost, does that mean we shouldn't go there in the future? No matter who they pull up, it's untrustworthy. Yesterday, I said the main force controls the start and end points and will never lose money. But the main force is profit-driven, so they will definitely make some moves. If they only chase the spread from the start, it's meaningless, and retail investors don't need to play! A low-level sector dropped 15% in three days on the index, and it was just entered by capital, not like lithium mines that had been hovering without gains for a long time. Entering means exiting — that's not acceptable. The robot sector fell a bit too much at the end of today. Next is the bottom-building phase, but after the bottom is built, you still need to exit on the rebound.

Yesterday's review title was: Compared to the tech rebound, the environment is more important. Today, you should be able to understand that sentence. We are self-aware. After we didn't take the last wave of AI hardware, we have never done tech rebounds because even a little difference is not acceptable. If today, the domestic chain falls and the overseas chain also falls, causing panic and a bottom-probing rebound, I would be willing to do it. But it's not working. Xinyisheng is too resilient here — I can't make a judgment. Shenghong Technology has broken below this year's starting point. Hengtong Optic-Electric has had nine consecutive down candles. I find it quite surprising that these high-level stocks are still holding up. So there may be a loosening move before going down again — that's a prerequisite!

This period has been tough. Most of my gains last week were offset by this week. I only made money on applications. But next week should be better because once the main decline in tech ends, things will be easier. Also, many people who read my review might think my username "Leek Raid" is not impressive. I may not be highly skilled, but I have a slight advantage over the average people you see: I respect the market and am objective enough. When I talk about risks, don't go against it. The same was true for commercial aerospace at the beginning of the year, and this time for AI hardware. Always treating what the market gives you as your own ability won't work. You can't be correct on every trade. If you were, that would also be a problem. Especially for this tech top call, my view differs from most bloggers on TaoGuBa. But I can provide reasoning and logic in advance, and then predict the main force's subsequent moves. It depends on whether you recognize that logic and reasoning. Don't just take one sentence from the internet: "Don't believe any predictions, follow the market." If you get fooled and really follow, try following this market.

Today's volume is still shrinking — first expanding then shrinking — but most stocks haven't been smashed down. So in the short term, they might use a high-level sell-off to do it again, possibly a bottom-probing and rebound. At this moment, you need to know which stocks are mistakenly killed and which have capital involvement. What are you waiting for? You are waiting for retail investors to dare to buy the dip. This is different from the early stage. In the early stage, retail investors crowded where the action was. But after this round of rebound, who will the main force go for? You need to prepare a plan. This relates to the rate hike issue. Because now the market doesn't recognize earnings. I think it's not that they don't recognize earnings; it's just following the normal trend. For example, Guangku Technology's earnings came out today and it rose. But lithium mines didn't work; they fell back the next day after earnings. Guangku Technology had fallen enough before, while lithium mines hadn't. Here, refer to the strongest, not the weakest — that is, Tianhua New Energy. So now we've reached a stage where earnings don't matter.

Finally, a psychological massage: It doesn't matter whether rates are raised or not. Let's calculate the worst case — if rates are raised, the high-level stocks have already fallen about 30%. Some, like Dekeli, are nearly halved. That is, the market has already started to decline. Don't be anxious at this time; instead, reflect on what you gained from this round of market. What I gained is contentment, not fighting against the trend, and taking profits when good. That was the case with commercial aerospace at the beginning of the year, and it is now. I can accept my imperfections. For example, I've been T-trading AI applications, including robots, and I can still give back some gains. But I know it's not my fault; they will come back later!

In other words, the market is now full of gold, but you didn't believe it before, and you still don't believe it now. I know many people blacklisted me in the comments earlier, originally planning to wait a month to see me make a fool of myself. But it turned out not even a month had passed, and the market really fell, and it fell so fast. Now you can't save face and are in a dilemma. There's no need. I didn't do well this week either. Many people didn't get to know me in 2023 and don't know my ability to control the big picture. But one thing is certain: I am definitely objective enough!

Borrowing a recent saying from Buffett: "Market fluctuations of this magnitude are irrational, but that's how human behavior works, and it will continue to do so. Over the next 50 years, if you are a young investor, you can step back a little, treat stocks as businesses to value, and buy when prices are very cheap, regardless of what anyone on TV says or what you read. Maybe, if you are willing, you can also sell out when people are extremely euphoric. This is actually not a very difficult intellectual game; as long as you can control your emotions, it's a simple game!"