One of the most frequently asked questions recently is whether $BTC 's current low of 57K is the bottom?

Another friend added that October is the low point of every cycle, and it might bottom out in October.

My opinion: I don't know if that price is the bottom, and I don't think it matters — what matters is when the trend forms.

But which phase or cycle might be the bottom can be anticipated in advance. Looking at the macro picture from a different perspective can reveal signals.

For reference:
- The bottom in 22-23 came only after consecutive rate hikes ended, then began to rebound.
- The bottom for the next rally in 24-25 only began after the ETF and Trump's inauguration.
- When the bottom will be for the 26 adjustment depends on whether macro bearish factors have fully landed and whether there are major macro bullish catalysts.

If there aren't any, then where the bottom is doesn't matter, because it will keep oscillating.

From Deribit's options indicators, there are a few pieces of information in this chart to reference:

1. Market call-to-put open interest ratio is 235k : 130k.
2. There's still a large position in 40K puts, with denser positions at 55-60.5K, indicating the market's bearish expectations haven't been eliminated. Even if it's not necessarily bearish to that level, even as a hedge against spot positions, it shows uncertainty.
3. Short-term bullish expectations at 70K suggest a significant amount of capital is optimistic about a short-term rebound.
4. Far-dated 100K calls are likely early accumulation of consensus for a subsequent rebound high.

From the options data, capital is still very cautious. This caution indirectly indicates high market uncertainty, at least still in a defensive mode. When some uncertain macro factors are basically cleared, a clearer and more defined direction can emerge.

Speaking of Deribit, I remember seeing an ad on X the other day — a trading competition giving away a small overseas island. An island costs only $30k. Movie stories about small islands flashed in my mind, but my first question was: How do I even get to that island? Haha.

The marketing idea is creative — it sparked people's instinctive curiosity.

I'm going to try trading. Not many participants right now, so competition is low. If I can win an island, I'd be someone with overseas fixed assets.

Just thinking about it makes me laugh, haha.

If you want to know more, you can click in to check it out.

[This is only a personal trading record for sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.]