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US struck Iran overnight and BTC only fell 1.8%. the tape is pricing a "20x tougher" strike as contained, not a cascade.
the louder story is memory. Samsung printed a record profit and dropped 7%, but it was a revenue miss on slowing DRAM price hikes, not lost demand. contract prices are still +13-18% QoQ, HBM sold out, NVDA sat flat while MU and SK Hynix bled. a de-rate on pricing cadence, not a broken thesis.
and sentiment isnt capitulated, its complacent. the loud voices say enough punishment, the sharp money says we're not near real fear yet.
so which breaks first this week: the perma-bull absorbing every dip, or the reverse-signal long that liquidates 0.4% under mark?