$CL The U.S. military has resumed military strikes against Iran and simultaneously revoked its oil sales licenses. This series of actions is by no means a "response" but a carefully orchestrated escalation strategy. On the surface, the U.S. still loudly advocates "pushing forward negotiations," but in reality, it is seizing an excuse to overreact. While it is true that Iran attacked merchant ships, the intensity of the U.S. military's response far exceeds the norm (by 4 to 5 times), while also cutting off oil export channels. This indicates that the move was pre-planned, only lacking a "reasonable" pretext.

Choosing the current juncture aims to break the "immunity psychology" that formed in the market after the June strikes. More drastic measures are needed to cause oil prices to jump, gold to fluctuate, and the crypto market to be turbulent. Only by creating panic can the U.S. force Iran back to the negotiating table, and it must do so on U.S. terms. The so-called July 11 negotiations are more of a propaganda prop; the real leverage lies on the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and in the ever-widening dollar gap in Iran's treasury.

The market has reacted quickly: crude oil rose 5% betting on supply cuts, gold prices fell reflecting inflation concerns, and Bitcoin dipped slightly indicating liquidity tightening. The short-term winners are military and energy capital, while ordinary people need to stay calm, not be led by appearances, and wait until after July 17 to judge whether Iran will actually retaliate. The Middle East game has never been an art of signing documents, but a contest of power and patience.#美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 #美国比特币ETF净流入4026枚BTC #GUSD年化升至3.8%