Trump terminates US-Iran interim ceasefire, Middle East tensions flare again

July 8, NATO summit — U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the interim ceasefire agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran "is over" and bluntly said it was "just a waste of time." As soon as these remarks were made, coupled with the U.S. launching a new wave of military strikes against Iran and revoking oil export waivers, the fuse on the Middle East powder keg was reignited, and international oil prices jumped.

At the summit, Trump attacked the Iranian leadership with harsh rhetoric, calling it "sick and vicious," and said that if it obtained nuclear weapons, it "would certainly use them." Although he did not completely close the door to negotiations, his statement that "they can talk, but it's a waste of time" has dimmed diplomatic prospects.

Shortly before, the U.S. military struck targets inside Iran in response to recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz; at the same time, the U.S. revoked all waivers for Iranian oil sales, completely cutting off its crude oil export channels. This dual-stranglehold of "military pressure + economic oil cutoff" pushed Brent crude back above $88 per barrel in the short term.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-third of global seaborne oil trade. The escalation of the U.S.-Iran military standoff directly threatens energy shipping security. The market fears that if Iran takes actions such as blocking the strait or retaliating against oil-producing countries, oil prices could face a more severe shock.

International reactions were divided: European allies called for restraint and diplomacy, while Russia and China condemned the U.S. unilateral escalation. But Trump has clearly chosen to use maximum pressure to force Iran to back down.

The interim ceasefire is dead; the crisis has just begun. When the White House deems diplomacy a "waste of time," peace in the Gulf region is draining away in another way. The volatility in energy markets may be just a prelude — the real story yet to unfold is the risk of miscalculation and conflict.
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