Jefferies: Alibaba (09988.HK) Cloud Business and AI Demand Strong, Reiterated as Top Pick for AI Investment Theme

Furui released a research report, forecasting that Alibaba (09988.HK) has short selling of $19.97 billion; the ratio is 20.648%. For the first fiscal quarter through the end of June this year, revenue is expected to grow 9% year-on-year to approximately RMB 270 billion. It forecasts that the combined EBITA of China e-commerce and the international digital business group (AIDC) will be flat year-on-year, while CMR is expected to decline by about 6.5% year-on-year.

The forecast is driven by strong AI demand, including model-as-a-service (MaaS) and growth in overall AI-related revenue. Alibaba Cloud Intelligence is expected to be the biggest highlight of the quarter, with revenue forecast to grow 45% year-on-year, compared with the market’s expectation of 41%, and the firm’s prior expectation of 40%. The forecast for the cloud business EBITA profit margin is to improve quarter-on-quarter to 11.5%. It also expects AIDC net profit to reach RMB 583 million (versus the market expectation of RMB 239 million; the firm previously expected it to only break even).

Related content 《Big bank》Furui cuts Meitu (01357.HK) target price to 7 yuan, maintains a “Buy” rating. Furui expects Alibaba’s overall EBITA for the first fiscal quarter to be approximately RMB 26 billion, higher than the market’s expectation of RMB 24 billion. It believes that macro negative factors and weak consumption sentiment have already been reflected in the stock’s performance. It maintains its “Buy” rating for Alibaba, again confirming it as the preferred stock for the AI investment theme. The U.S. stock target price of $185 and the Hong Kong stock target price of HK$179 remain unchanged.

Alibaba’s share price rose to a high of HK$109 this afternoon, and is now quoted at HK$107.5, up 12.21%. (gc/u) (Hong Kong stock quotes are delayed by at least fifteen minutes. Short selling data as of 2026-07-08 12:25.)