《Dah Hang》 JPMorgan: Open-source weighted commercialization shows a “winner-takes-all” phenomenon. Zhipu (02513.HK) target price raised to 2,000 yuan. MiniMax (00100.HK) target price cut to 300 yuan.

JPMorgan released a research report saying that currently competitive models in the market can expand adoption through open-weight models, and continue to monetize through official APIs, partner channels, enterprise deployments and workflow products; whereas weaker models face faster price comparisons and traffic diversion. The bank believes the commercialization of open-weight is forming a “winner-takes-all” framework, and expects Zhipu (02513.HK) +222.000 (+13.789%) short selling at $23.5 million; the ratio of 0.196% to benefit, as GLM-5.2 strengthens its positioning as a domestic frontier model and enhances the visibility of open-weight monetization.

JPMorgan raised its revenue forecasts for Zhipu for 2026 to 2030 by 3% to 9%, and narrowed its adjusted loss forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to RMB 3.711 billion and RMB 3.141 billion respectively (RMB in the same below), while revising the 2028 forecast from a prior forecast loss of RMB 1.287 billion to a profit of RMB 2.367 billion. It also raised the target price from HKD 1,800 to HKD 2,000, while keeping a “Overweight” rating, and believes that the performance of GLM-5.5/6, Kimi K3 and DeepSeek V4.1 will be key observation points in determining whether Zhipu can maintain its leading advantage.

Related Content “Major Brokerages” Minimax (00100.HK) fell 4.5%, as Citi slashed its target price to 533 and added a 30-day downside watch. JPMorgan lowered its revenue forecasts for MiniMax (00100.HK) +43.800 (+13.527%) short selling at $76.9 million; the ratio of 29.391% from 2027 to 2030 by 2% to 8%, cut the target price from HKD 400 to HKD 300, and maintained a “Neutral” rating, pointing out that the M3 model offers a permanent 50% discount, reflecting that the model has not yet formed a clear capability premium over leading domestic peers. It believes that if MiniMax can narrow the capability gap, with discount normalization and continued sustained API usage, and by demonstrating stronger workflow stickiness through MiniMax Code, the view could turn positive. (gc/da) (Hong Kong stock quotes are delayed by at least fifteen minutes. Short selling data as of 2026-07-08 12:25.)